Global seismicity follows long-term USGS averages of roughly 15–16 magnitude 7.0+ events annually, driven by plate-boundary strain release along subduction zones and transform faults. As of mid-June 2026, six M7.0–7.9 quakes have occurred, including the June 8 Philippines event and earlier Tonga and Indonesia shocks, placing the year on pace for a typical total. Traders weigh whether clustered aftershocks in the Pacific Ring of Fire or quiet intervals at major faults will push the count toward 14–16 versus 11–13. Model uncertainty arises from variable recurrence intervals and the low baseline probability of rare M8+ events before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
11–13 31%
14–16 31%
17–19 15%
8–10 7.6%
$1,317,619 Vol.
$1,317,619 Vol.
31 dic 2026
5–7
2%
8–10
8%
11–13
31%
14–16
31%
17–19
15%
20+
5%
11–13 31%
14–16 31%
17–19 15%
8–10 7.6%
$1,317,619 Vol.
$1,317,619 Vol.
31 dic 2026
5–7
$73,715 Vol.
2%
8–10
$132,059 Vol.
8%
11–13
$411,217 Vol.
31%
14–16
$185,819 Vol.
31%
17–19
$208,915 Vol.
15%
20+
$62,955 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismicity follows long-term USGS averages of roughly 15–16 magnitude 7.0+ events annually, driven by plate-boundary strain release along subduction zones and transform faults. As of mid-June 2026, six M7.0–7.9 quakes have occurred, including the June 8 Philippines event and earlier Tonga and Indonesia shocks, placing the year on pace for a typical total. Traders weigh whether clustered aftershocks in the Pacific Ring of Fire or quiet intervals at major faults will push the count toward 14–16 versus 11–13. Model uncertainty arises from variable recurrence intervals and the low baseline probability of rare M8+ events before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volumen
$1,317,619Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismicity follows long-term USGS averages of roughly 15–16 magnitude 7.0+ events annually, driven by plate-boundary strain release along subduction zones and transform faults. As of mid-June 2026, six M7.0–7.9 quakes have occurred, including the June 8 Philippines event and earlier Tonga and Indonesia shocks, placing the year on pace for a typical total. Traders weigh whether clustered aftershocks in the Pacific Ring of Fire or quiet intervals at major faults will push the count toward 14–16 versus 11–13. Model uncertainty arises from variable recurrence intervals and the low baseline probability of rare M8+ events before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,317,619Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Global seismicity follows long-term USGS averages of roughly 15–16 magnitude 7.0+ events annually, driven by plate-boundary strain release along subduction zones and transform faults. As of mid-June 2026, six M7.0–7.9 quakes have occurred, including the June 8 Philippines event and earlier Tonga and Indonesia shocks, placing the year on pace for a typical total. Traders weigh whether clustered aftershocks in the Pacific Ring of Fire or quiet intervals at major faults will push the count toward 14–16 versus 11–13. Model uncertainty arises from variable recurrence intervals and the low baseline probability of rare M8+ events before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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