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Clima Y Ciencia·Ciencias

¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?

icon for ¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
Clima Y Ciencia·Ciencias

¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?

2 56%

1 35%

4 4.5%

Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.9%

Polymarket

$2,724,463 Vol.

2 56%

1 35%

4 4.5%

Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.9%

Polymarket

$2,724,463 Vol.

1

$436,977 Vol.

35%

2

$306,289 Vol.

56%

3

$401,378 Vol.

3%

4

$404,891 Vol.

5%

Título del ítem del grupo: 5

$716,880 Vol.

1%

Título del grupo: 6 o menos

$458,049 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a strong 55.5% probability for 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record and 35.0% for the hottest, driven by the relentless anthropogenic warming trend amplified by record ocean heat content and a forecasted shift to El Niño conditions. NOAA data shows March 2026 tying 2024 as the second-warmest March globally (1.31°C above 20th-century average), with January and February ranking fifth-warmest, keeping 2026 on pace for a top-five finish per official outlooks (98.4% chance). Current ENSO-neutral state (80% through April-June) is expected to transition to El Niño by mid-year (61% NOAA probability), boosting global mean surface temperature anomalies toward or beyond 2024's record. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA seasonal forecasts will refine intensification potential amid baseline greenhouse gas forcing.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,724,463
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a strong 55.5% probability for 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record and 35.0% for the hottest, driven by the relentless anthropogenic warming trend amplified by record ocean heat content and a forecasted shift to El Niño conditions. NOAA data shows March 2026 tying 2024 as the second-warmest March globally (1.31°C above 20th-century average), with January and February ranking fifth-warmest, keeping 2026 on pace for a top-five finish per official outlooks (98.4% chance). Current ENSO-neutral state (80% through April-June) is expected to transition to El Niño by mid-year (61% NOAA probability), boosting global mean surface temperature anomalies toward or beyond 2024's record. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA seasonal forecasts will refine intensification potential amid baseline greenhouse gas forcing.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,724,463
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "2" con 56%, seguido de "1" con 35%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 56¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?" ha generado $2.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 12, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?" es "2" con 56%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1" con 35%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.