Recent year-to-date data through May show 2026 global temperatures running as the fourth-warmest on record per NOAA analyses, behind 2024, 2023, and 2025, amid a long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. An emerging El Niño—now under official advisory and forecast to strengthen—adds substantial heat to equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, increasing the likelihood of late-year surges that could push the annual mean into second or first place. Model ensembles and statistical outlooks assign roughly a 95 % probability that 2026 finishes among the top four years, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward second (66 %) and first (25 %). A weak prior La Niña kept early 2026 cooler than peak El Niño years, but the shift in ENSO phase and continued background forcing explain trader consensus favoring a near-record finish.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 66%
1 25%
4 4.2%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.8%
$2,950,900 Vol.
$2,950,900 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
25%
2
66%
3
3%
4
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
<1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
4%
2 66%
1 25%
4 4.2%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.8%
$2,950,900 Vol.
$2,950,900 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$481,164 Vol.
25%
2
$339,655 Vol.
66%
3
$456,362 Vol.
3%
4
$440,705 Vol.
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$754,172 Vol.
<1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$478,843 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent year-to-date data through May show 2026 global temperatures running as the fourth-warmest on record per NOAA analyses, behind 2024, 2023, and 2025, amid a long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. An emerging El Niño—now under official advisory and forecast to strengthen—adds substantial heat to equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, increasing the likelihood of late-year surges that could push the annual mean into second or first place. Model ensembles and statistical outlooks assign roughly a 95 % probability that 2026 finishes among the top four years, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward second (66 %) and first (25 %). A weak prior La Niña kept early 2026 cooler than peak El Niño years, but the shift in ENSO phase and continued background forcing explain trader consensus favoring a near-record finish.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,950,900Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent year-to-date data through May show 2026 global temperatures running as the fourth-warmest on record per NOAA analyses, behind 2024, 2023, and 2025, amid a long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. An emerging El Niño—now under official advisory and forecast to strengthen—adds substantial heat to equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, increasing the likelihood of late-year surges that could push the annual mean into second or first place. Model ensembles and statistical outlooks assign roughly a 95 % probability that 2026 finishes among the top four years, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward second (66 %) and first (25 %). A weak prior La Niña kept early 2026 cooler than peak El Niño years, but the shift in ENSO phase and continued background forcing explain trader consensus favoring a near-record finish.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,950,900Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent year-to-date data through May show 2026 global temperatures running as the fourth-warmest on record per NOAA analyses, behind 2024, 2023, and 2025, amid a long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. An emerging El Niño—now under official advisory and forecast to strengthen—adds substantial heat to equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, increasing the likelihood of late-year surges that could push the annual mean into second or first place. Model ensembles and statistical outlooks assign roughly a 95 % probability that 2026 finishes among the top four years, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward second (66 %) and first (25 %). A weak prior La Niña kept early 2026 cooler than peak El Niño years, but the shift in ENSO phase and continued background forcing explain trader consensus favoring a near-record finish.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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