Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for a Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the continental U.S. before 2027, reflecting the event's extreme rarity, with only five such strikes since 1851 and none since Hurricane Michael's 2018 Florida Panhandle hit. The subdued 2025 Atlantic season, featuring 13 named storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls and no Gulf entries for the first time since 2015 despite three basinwide Category 5s like Melissa (Jamaica impact), has bolstered this view. April 2026 preseason outlooks from Colorado State University and others project below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—amid weak La Niña and potential shear, though rapid intensification risks persist; NOAA's May update and June 1 season start could shift model consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
$134,203 Vol.
$134,203 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$134,203 Vol.
$134,203 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for a Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the continental U.S. before 2027, reflecting the event's extreme rarity, with only five such strikes since 1851 and none since Hurricane Michael's 2018 Florida Panhandle hit. The subdued 2025 Atlantic season, featuring 13 named storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls and no Gulf entries for the first time since 2015 despite three basinwide Category 5s like Melissa (Jamaica impact), has bolstered this view. April 2026 preseason outlooks from Colorado State University and others project below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—amid weak La Niña and potential shear, though rapid intensification risks persist; NOAA's May update and June 1 season start could shift model consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$134,203Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for a Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the continental U.S. before 2027, reflecting the event's extreme rarity, with only five such strikes since 1851 and none since Hurricane Michael's 2018 Florida Panhandle hit. The subdued 2025 Atlantic season, featuring 13 named storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls and no Gulf entries for the first time since 2015 despite three basinwide Category 5s like Melissa (Jamaica impact), has bolstered this view. April 2026 preseason outlooks from Colorado State University and others project below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—amid weak La Niña and potential shear, though rapid intensification risks persist; NOAA's May update and June 1 season start could shift model consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$134,203Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% for a Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the continental U.S. before 2027, reflecting the event's extreme rarity, with only five such strikes since 1851 and none since Hurricane Michael's 2018 Florida Panhandle hit. The subdued 2025 Atlantic season, featuring 13 named storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls and no Gulf entries for the first time since 2015 despite three basinwide Category 5s like Melissa (Jamaica impact), has bolstered this view. April 2026 preseason outlooks from Colorado State University and others project below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—amid weak La Niña and potential shear, though rapid intensification risks persist; NOAA's May update and June 1 season start could shift model consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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