NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, released in May and April, project below-normal activity with an 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and just 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These outlooks cite elevated vertical wind shear and other conditions favoring fewer intense systems, yielding below-average U.S. landfall probabilities for majors. Category 5 landfalls (157+ mph sustained winds) remain historically rare along the continental U.S., with none since 2018, and the compressed window through November 2026 limits opportunities despite model uncertainties. Trader consensus at 78.5% for "No" reflects this evidence-based restraint on extreme intensification and precise U.S. tracks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
$136,939 Vol.
$136,939 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$136,939 Vol.
$136,939 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, released in May and April, project below-normal activity with an 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and just 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These outlooks cite elevated vertical wind shear and other conditions favoring fewer intense systems, yielding below-average U.S. landfall probabilities for majors. Category 5 landfalls (157+ mph sustained winds) remain historically rare along the continental U.S., with none since 2018, and the compressed window through November 2026 limits opportunities despite model uncertainties. Trader consensus at 78.5% for "No" reflects this evidence-based restraint on extreme intensification and precise U.S. tracks.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$136,939Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, released in May and April, project below-normal activity with an 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and just 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These outlooks cite elevated vertical wind shear and other conditions favoring fewer intense systems, yielding below-average U.S. landfall probabilities for majors. Category 5 landfalls (157+ mph sustained winds) remain historically rare along the continental U.S., with none since 2018, and the compressed window through November 2026 limits opportunities despite model uncertainties. Trader consensus at 78.5% for "No" reflects this evidence-based restraint on extreme intensification and precise U.S. tracks.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$136,939Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, released in May and April, project below-normal activity with an 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and just 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These outlooks cite elevated vertical wind shear and other conditions favoring fewer intense systems, yielding below-average U.S. landfall probabilities for majors. Category 5 landfalls (157+ mph sustained winds) remain historically rare along the continental U.S., with none since 2018, and the compressed window through November 2026 limits opportunities despite model uncertainties. Trader consensus at 78.5% for "No" reflects this evidence-based restraint on extreme intensification and precise U.S. tracks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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