Ongoing anthropogenic warming, with 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 ranking third, provides the baseline trend that makes a new monthly global temperature record in 2026 highly probable. Early 2026 data show persistently elevated anomalies, including the second-warmest March on record, while a developing El Niño is projected to amplify temperatures later in the year. Climate scientist James Hansen’s physics-based analysis indicates 2026 is likely to become the warmest year overall, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for at least one month surpassing prior peaks. NOAA and Copernicus monitoring confirm the recent multi-year streak of exceptional heat, though model spread around ENSO evolution introduces modest uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
Sí
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
Sí
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing anthropogenic warming, with 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 ranking third, provides the baseline trend that makes a new monthly global temperature record in 2026 highly probable. Early 2026 data show persistently elevated anomalies, including the second-warmest March on record, while a developing El Niño is projected to amplify temperatures later in the year. Climate scientist James Hansen’s physics-based analysis indicates 2026 is likely to become the warmest year overall, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for at least one month surpassing prior peaks. NOAA and Copernicus monitoring confirm the recent multi-year streak of exceptional heat, though model spread around ENSO evolution introduces modest uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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