Ongoing anthropogenic warming, with 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 ranking third, provides the baseline trend that makes a new monthly global temperature record in 2026 highly probable. Early 2026 data show persistently elevated anomalies, including the second-warmest March on record, while a developing El Niño is projected to amplify temperatures later in the year. Climate scientist James Hansen’s physics-based analysis indicates 2026 is likely to become the warmest year overall, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for at least one month surpassing prior peaks. NOAA and Copernicus monitoring confirm the recent multi-year streak of exceptional heat, though model spread around ENSO evolution introduces modest uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
Sí
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
10 ene 2027
Sí
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
10 ene 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing anthropogenic warming, with 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 ranking third, provides the baseline trend that makes a new monthly global temperature record in 2026 highly probable. Early 2026 data show persistently elevated anomalies, including the second-warmest March on record, while a developing El Niño is projected to amplify temperatures later in the year. Climate scientist James Hansen’s physics-based analysis indicates 2026 is likely to become the warmest year overall, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for at least one month surpassing prior peaks. NOAA and Copernicus monitoring confirm the recent multi-year streak of exceptional heat, though model spread around ENSO evolution introduces modest uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$141,084Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing anthropogenic warming, with 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 ranking third, provides the baseline trend that makes a new monthly global temperature record in 2026 highly probable. Early 2026 data show persistently elevated anomalies, including the second-warmest March on record, while a developing El Niño is projected to amplify temperatures later in the year. Climate scientist James Hansen’s physics-based analysis indicates 2026 is likely to become the warmest year overall, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for at least one month surpassing prior peaks. NOAA and Copernicus monitoring confirm the recent multi-year streak of exceptional heat, though model spread around ENSO evolution introduces modest uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$141,084Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing anthropogenic warming, with 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 ranking third, provides the baseline trend that makes a new monthly global temperature record in 2026 highly probable. Early 2026 data show persistently elevated anomalies, including the second-warmest March on record, while a developing El Niño is projected to amplify temperatures later in the year. Climate scientist James Hansen’s physics-based analysis indicates 2026 is likely to become the warmest year overall, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for at least one month surpassing prior peaks. NOAA and Copernicus monitoring confirm the recent multi-year streak of exceptional heat, though model spread around ENSO evolution introduces modest uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes