Ongoing global warming driven by greenhouse gas accumulation keeps 2026 monthly temperatures near historic highs, with May ranking as the second-warmest on record behind only 2024 according to NOAA and Copernicus data. Trader consensus at 83.5% for a new monthly record reflects WMO forecasts of an 86% chance that at least one year from 2026–2030 exceeds 2024’s annual peak, combined with models indicating a developing El Niño by late 2026 that typically amplifies sea surface and global air temperatures. Recent months have ranked in the top five without yet surpassing prior peaks, but the expected shift from current weak La Niña conditions and continued ocean heat content raise the likelihood of record-breaking warmth in summer or fall months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
¿Será algún mes de 2026 el más caluroso registrado?
Sí
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
10 ene 2027
Sí
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
10 ene 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming driven by greenhouse gas accumulation keeps 2026 monthly temperatures near historic highs, with May ranking as the second-warmest on record behind only 2024 according to NOAA and Copernicus data. Trader consensus at 83.5% for a new monthly record reflects WMO forecasts of an 86% chance that at least one year from 2026–2030 exceeds 2024’s annual peak, combined with models indicating a developing El Niño by late 2026 that typically amplifies sea surface and global air temperatures. Recent months have ranked in the top five without yet surpassing prior peaks, but the expected shift from current weak La Niña conditions and continued ocean heat content raise the likelihood of record-breaking warmth in summer or fall months.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$141,084Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming driven by greenhouse gas accumulation keeps 2026 monthly temperatures near historic highs, with May ranking as the second-warmest on record behind only 2024 according to NOAA and Copernicus data. Trader consensus at 83.5% for a new monthly record reflects WMO forecasts of an 86% chance that at least one year from 2026–2030 exceeds 2024’s annual peak, combined with models indicating a developing El Niño by late 2026 that typically amplifies sea surface and global air temperatures. Recent months have ranked in the top five without yet surpassing prior peaks, but the expected shift from current weak La Niña conditions and continued ocean heat content raise the likelihood of record-breaking warmth in summer or fall months.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$141,084Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing global warming driven by greenhouse gas accumulation keeps 2026 monthly temperatures near historic highs, with May ranking as the second-warmest on record behind only 2024 according to NOAA and Copernicus data. Trader consensus at 83.5% for a new monthly record reflects WMO forecasts of an 86% chance that at least one year from 2026–2030 exceeds 2024’s annual peak, combined with models indicating a developing El Niño by late 2026 that typically amplifies sea surface and global air temperatures. Recent months have ranked in the top five without yet surpassing prior peaks, but the expected shift from current weak La Niña conditions and continued ocean heat content raise the likelihood of record-breaking warmth in summer or fall months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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