Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Shanghai's May 18 nocturnal low temperature, with GFS and ECMWF models showing a spread of 17–23°C centered near 20–21°C, driving even market-implied odds across 16–24°C bins. Recent extended forecasts from reliable sources like timeanddate.com peg the low at 21°C amid a mild warm pattern, with current lows around 20–21°C over May 14–17 supporting slightly above the mid-May historical average of 18°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight cloudiness from East China Sea moisture, light winds allowing radiative cooling, and potential subtropical high influence limiting deeper chills. New 00Z/12Z runs from ECMWF and GFS tomorrow could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 18 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 18 de mayo?
20°C 27%
15°C o menos 23%
21°C 20%
18°C 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
15°C o menos
23%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C
27%
21°C
20%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
15%
25°C o más
4%
20°C 27%
15°C o menos 23%
21°C 20%
18°C 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
15°C o menos
$28 Vol.
23%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
19%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$0 Vol.
18%
24°C
$20 Vol.
15%
25°C o más
$28 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Shanghai's May 18 nocturnal low temperature, with GFS and ECMWF models showing a spread of 17–23°C centered near 20–21°C, driving even market-implied odds across 16–24°C bins. Recent extended forecasts from reliable sources like timeanddate.com peg the low at 21°C amid a mild warm pattern, with current lows around 20–21°C over May 14–17 supporting slightly above the mid-May historical average of 18°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight cloudiness from East China Sea moisture, light winds allowing radiative cooling, and potential subtropical high influence limiting deeper chills. New 00Z/12Z runs from ECMWF and GFS tomorrow could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$77Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Shanghai's May 18 nocturnal low temperature, with GFS and ECMWF models showing a spread of 17–23°C centered near 20–21°C, driving even market-implied odds across 16–24°C bins. Recent extended forecasts from reliable sources like timeanddate.com peg the low at 21°C amid a mild warm pattern, with current lows around 20–21°C over May 14–17 supporting slightly above the mid-May historical average of 18°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight cloudiness from East China Sea moisture, light winds allowing radiative cooling, and potential subtropical high influence limiting deeper chills. New 00Z/12Z runs from ECMWF and GFS tomorrow could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$77Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Shanghai's May 18 nocturnal low temperature, with GFS and ECMWF models showing a spread of 17–23°C centered near 20–21°C, driving even market-implied odds across 16–24°C bins. Recent extended forecasts from reliable sources like timeanddate.com peg the low at 21°C amid a mild warm pattern, with current lows around 20–21°C over May 14–17 supporting slightly above the mid-May historical average of 18°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight cloudiness from East China Sea moisture, light winds allowing radiative cooling, and potential subtropical high influence limiting deeper chills. New 00Z/12Z runs from ECMWF and GFS tomorrow could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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