The intense Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th congressional district, pitting incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, drove elevated voter participation through national attention, substantial outside spending, and mobilization of party activists. This dynamic produced roughly double the turnout of the prior cycle's primary, with final certified results falling squarely in the 100-110k range. Traders assign near-certainty to this bracket given the confirmed vote totals and absence of unresolved procedural factors. Scenarios that could have shifted the outcome, such as significantly lower suburban engagement or delayed absentee ballot processing, did not materialize at scale.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoKY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
KY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
100-110k 99.7%
80-90k <1%
120k+ <1%
<80k <1%
$47,970 Vol.
$47,970 Vol.
19 may 2026
<80k
<1%
80-90k
1%
90-100k
<1%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
100-110k 99.7%
80-90k <1%
120k+ <1%
<80k <1%
$47,970 Vol.
$47,970 Vol.
19 may 2026
<80k
$5,312 Vol.
<1%
80-90k
$4,063 Vol.
1%
90-100k
$2,741 Vol.
<1%
100-110k
$13,470 Vol.
100%
110-120k
$7,064 Vol.
<1%
120k+
$15,319 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The intense Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th congressional district, pitting incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, drove elevated voter participation through national attention, substantial outside spending, and mobilization of party activists. This dynamic produced roughly double the turnout of the prior cycle's primary, with final certified results falling squarely in the 100-110k range. Traders assign near-certainty to this bracket given the confirmed vote totals and absence of unresolved procedural factors. Scenarios that could have shifted the outcome, such as significantly lower suburban engagement or delayed absentee ballot processing, did not materialize at scale.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado abierto: May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Volumen
$47,970Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The intense Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th congressional district, pitting incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, drove elevated voter participation through national attention, substantial outside spending, and mobilization of party activists. This dynamic produced roughly double the turnout of the prior cycle's primary, with final certified results falling squarely in the 100-110k range. Traders assign near-certainty to this bracket given the confirmed vote totals and absence of unresolved procedural factors. Scenarios that could have shifted the outcome, such as significantly lower suburban engagement or delayed absentee ballot processing, did not materialize at scale.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volumen
$47,970Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The intense Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th congressional district, pitting incumbent Thomas Massie against Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, drove elevated voter participation through national attention, substantial outside spending, and mobilization of party activists. This dynamic produced roughly double the turnout of the prior cycle's primary, with final certified results falling squarely in the 100-110k range. Traders assign near-certainty to this bracket given the confirmed vote totals and absence of unresolved procedural factors. Scenarios that could have shifted the outcome, such as significantly lower suburban engagement or delayed absentee ballot processing, did not materialize at scale.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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