Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, driven by stalled US-Iran negotiations where the US demands a 20-year moratorium while Iran proposes only short-term suspensions of three to five years. Recent IAEA reports from late April highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities like Natanz and Isfahan from the 2025 war, with inspectors unable to verify the status of its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile, potentially still recoverable. No diplomatic breakthrough has emerged in the past week despite Pakistan-mediated talks, and Iran's latest counterproposal delays nuclear concessions for sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening, underscoring significant barriers before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
$79,676 Vol.
$79,676 Vol.
31 may 2026
$79,676 Vol.
$79,676 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, driven by stalled US-Iran negotiations where the US demands a 20-year moratorium while Iran proposes only short-term suspensions of three to five years. Recent IAEA reports from late April highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities like Natanz and Isfahan from the 2025 war, with inspectors unable to verify the status of its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile, potentially still recoverable. No diplomatic breakthrough has emerged in the past week despite Pakistan-mediated talks, and Iran's latest counterproposal delays nuclear concessions for sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening, underscoring significant barriers before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volumen
$79,676Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, driven by stalled US-Iran negotiations where the US demands a 20-year moratorium while Iran proposes only short-term suspensions of three to five years. Recent IAEA reports from late April highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities like Natanz and Isfahan from the 2025 war, with inspectors unable to verify the status of its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile, potentially still recoverable. No diplomatic breakthrough has emerged in the past week despite Pakistan-mediated talks, and Iran's latest counterproposal delays nuclear concessions for sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening, underscoring significant barriers before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$79,976Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, driven by stalled US-Iran negotiations where the US demands a 20-year moratorium while Iran proposes only short-term suspensions of three to five years. Recent IAEA reports from late April highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities like Natanz and Isfahan from the 2025 war, with inspectors unable to verify the status of its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile, potentially still recoverable. No diplomatic breakthrough has emerged in the past week despite Pakistan-mediated talks, and Iran's latest counterproposal delays nuclear concessions for sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening, underscoring significant barriers before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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