US and Israeli forces launched widespread airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, escalating into the ongoing 2026 Iran war marked by Iranian missile retaliation, Strait of Hormuz closure, and a US naval blockade. A tenuous two-week ceasefire agreed April 7 has stalled amid Iran's uncompromising proposals, as noted in April 28 assessments, with no major de-escalation signals. On April 30, US Central Command is briefing President Trump on new strike options, driving Gulf market jitters and fears of renewed escalation. Defense Secretary Hegseth's congressional testimony highlights war costs and domestic pressures, while upcoming diplomatic efforts in Islamabad face low prospects, leaving room for further military action by allies like the UAE amid proxy conflicts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Otro país llevará a cabo una acción militar contra Irán por...?
¿Otro país llevará a cabo una acción militar contra Irán por...?
$2,185,766 Vol.
30 abr 2026
30 de abril
1%
$2,185,766 Vol.
30 de abril
$649,635 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US and Israeli forces launched widespread airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, escalating into the ongoing 2026 Iran war marked by Iranian missile retaliation, Strait of Hormuz closure, and a US naval blockade. A tenuous two-week ceasefire agreed April 7 has stalled amid Iran's uncompromising proposals, as noted in April 28 assessments, with no major de-escalation signals. On April 30, US Central Command is briefing President Trump on new strike options, driving Gulf market jitters and fears of renewed escalation. Defense Secretary Hegseth's congressional testimony highlights war costs and domestic pressures, while upcoming diplomatic efforts in Islamabad face low prospects, leaving room for further military action by allies like the UAE amid proxy conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,185,766Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US and Israeli forces launched widespread airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, escalating into the ongoing 2026 Iran war marked by Iranian missile retaliation, Strait of Hormuz closure, and a US naval blockade. A tenuous two-week ceasefire agreed April 7 has stalled amid Iran's uncompromising proposals, as noted in April 28 assessments, with no major de-escalation signals. On April 30, US Central Command is briefing President Trump on new strike options, driving Gulf market jitters and fears of renewed escalation. Defense Secretary Hegseth's congressional testimony highlights war costs and domestic pressures, while upcoming diplomatic efforts in Islamabad face low prospects, leaving room for further military action by allies like the UAE amid proxy conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,185,766Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces launched widespread airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, escalating into the ongoing 2026 Iran war marked by Iranian missile retaliation, Strait of Hormuz closure, and a US naval blockade. A tenuous two-week ceasefire agreed April 7 has stalled amid Iran's uncompromising proposals, as noted in April 28 assessments, with no major de-escalation signals. On April 30, US Central Command is briefing President Trump on new strike options, driving Gulf market jitters and fears of renewed escalation. Defense Secretary Hegseth's congressional testimony highlights war costs and domestic pressures, while upcoming diplomatic efforts in Islamabad face low prospects, leaving room for further military action by allies like the UAE amid proxy conflicts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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