Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 28°C (37.5% implied probability) at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on May 1, driven by the latest forecast model consensus from sources like ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration indicating peak afternoon heating near that threshold under a persistent upper-level ridge. This pattern has fostered warm air advection and subsidence, elevating temperatures 8–10°C above climatological May 1 normals of around 19°C, following above-average late-April readings amid high pressure dominance over eastern China. Lower odds for 27°C (11%) and 29°C (18.5%) reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and sea breeze moderation, with official hourly observations throughout the day poised to refine probabilities as the resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 1?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 1?
28°C 43%
29°C 19%
27°C 12%
30°C 6.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
12%
28°C
38%
29°C
19%
30°C
6%
31°C
3%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 43%
29°C 19%
27°C 12%
30°C 6.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
23°C or below
$1,485 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,091 Vol.
1%
25°C
$682 Vol.
2%
26°C
$349 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,386 Vol.
12%
28°C
$239 Vol.
38%
29°C
$145 Vol.
19%
30°C
$567 Vol.
6%
31°C
$235 Vol.
3%
32°C
$128 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$404 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 28°C (37.5% implied probability) at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on May 1, driven by the latest forecast model consensus from sources like ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration indicating peak afternoon heating near that threshold under a persistent upper-level ridge. This pattern has fostered warm air advection and subsidence, elevating temperatures 8–10°C above climatological May 1 normals of around 19°C, following above-average late-April readings amid high pressure dominance over eastern China. Lower odds for 27°C (11%) and 29°C (18.5%) reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and sea breeze moderation, with official hourly observations throughout the day poised to refine probabilities as the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volumen
$6,604Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 28°C (37.5% implied probability) at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on May 1, driven by the latest forecast model consensus from sources like ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration indicating peak afternoon heating near that threshold under a persistent upper-level ridge. This pattern has fostered warm air advection and subsidence, elevating temperatures 8–10°C above climatological May 1 normals of around 19°C, following above-average late-April readings amid high pressure dominance over eastern China. Lower odds for 27°C (11%) and 29°C (18.5%) reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and sea breeze moderation, with official hourly observations throughout the day poised to refine probabilities as the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,604Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 28°C (37.5% implied probability) at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on May 1, driven by the latest forecast model consensus from sources like ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration indicating peak afternoon heating near that threshold under a persistent upper-level ridge. This pattern has fostered warm air advection and subsidence, elevating temperatures 8–10°C above climatological May 1 normals of around 19°C, following above-average late-April readings amid high pressure dominance over eastern China. Lower odds for 27°C (11%) and 29°C (18.5%) reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and sea breeze moderation, with official hourly observations throughout the day poised to refine probabilities as the resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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