AEMET's latest forecast indicates a high of 18°C for Madrid on May 16 amid a cooler-than-normal pattern for central Spain during May 11-17, driven by persistent northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and minimal cloud cover allowing radiative cooling overnight to 6°C. Yet trader consensus prices 20°C (32.5%) and 21°C (31.0%) as frontrunners, reflecting spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some runs project afternoon heating to 20-22°C via boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects—against a mid-May climatological average of 22°C. Key differentiators include northerly wind gusts above 15 km/h capping highs at 19°C versus lighter flows enabling 21°C peaks; new model runs from ECMWF (twice daily) and GFS (four times daily) through May 15 will refine probabilities as resolution approaches.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
21°C 34%
20°C 34%
19°C 16%
22°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
16%
20°C
34%
21°C
34%
22°C
14%
23°C
5%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 34%
20°C 34%
19°C 16%
22°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
15°C or below
$517 Vol.
1%
16°C
$15 Vol.
1%
17°C
$21 Vol.
3%
18°C
$0 Vol.
5%
19°C
$0 Vol.
16%
20°C
$19 Vol.
34%
21°C
$12 Vol.
34%
22°C
$0 Vol.
14%
23°C
$16 Vol.
5%
24°C
$5 Vol.
3%
25°C or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest forecast indicates a high of 18°C for Madrid on May 16 amid a cooler-than-normal pattern for central Spain during May 11-17, driven by persistent northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and minimal cloud cover allowing radiative cooling overnight to 6°C. Yet trader consensus prices 20°C (32.5%) and 21°C (31.0%) as frontrunners, reflecting spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some runs project afternoon heating to 20-22°C via boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects—against a mid-May climatological average of 22°C. Key differentiators include northerly wind gusts above 15 km/h capping highs at 19°C versus lighter flows enabling 21°C peaks; new model runs from ECMWF (twice daily) and GFS (four times daily) through May 15 will refine probabilities as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$620Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest forecast indicates a high of 18°C for Madrid on May 16 amid a cooler-than-normal pattern for central Spain during May 11-17, driven by persistent northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and minimal cloud cover allowing radiative cooling overnight to 6°C. Yet trader consensus prices 20°C (32.5%) and 21°C (31.0%) as frontrunners, reflecting spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some runs project afternoon heating to 20-22°C via boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects—against a mid-May climatological average of 22°C. Key differentiators include northerly wind gusts above 15 km/h capping highs at 19°C versus lighter flows enabling 21°C peaks; new model runs from ECMWF (twice daily) and GFS (four times daily) through May 15 will refine probabilities as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$620Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...AEMET's latest forecast indicates a high of 18°C for Madrid on May 16 amid a cooler-than-normal pattern for central Spain during May 11-17, driven by persistent northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and minimal cloud cover allowing radiative cooling overnight to 6°C. Yet trader consensus prices 20°C (32.5%) and 21°C (31.0%) as frontrunners, reflecting spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some runs project afternoon heating to 20-22°C via boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects—against a mid-May climatological average of 22°C. Key differentiators include northerly wind gusts above 15 km/h capping highs at 19°C versus lighter flows enabling 21°C peaks; new model runs from ECMWF (twice daily) and GFS (four times daily) through May 15 will refine probabilities as resolution approaches.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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