Divergent guidance from leading forecast models drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across mid-80s outcomes for Houston's highest temperature on May 16, with GFS ensembles projecting warmer conditions near 88-90°F while ECMWF runs indicate cooler highs around 82-85°F—a 5-8°F spread noted in recent model comparisons for south-central Texas. National Weather Service blended guidance centers on 84-87°F under building high pressure following early May heavy rains, but uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cloud cover, light winds limiting mixing, and diurnal convective activity. Climatological normals hover near 87°F, yet model biases and ridge strength will clarify with today's 12z runs and evening NWS updates. Traders weigh these variables ahead of official observations at key Houston stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on May 16?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 16?
86-87°F 38%
88°F or higher 32%
84-85°F 29%
80-81°F 4.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
29%
86-87°F
38%
88°F or higher
32%
86-87°F 38%
88°F or higher 32%
84-85°F 29%
80-81°F 4.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
69°F or below
$20 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$10 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$10 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$15 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$15 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$15 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
4%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
29%
86-87°F
$21 Vol.
38%
88°F or higher
$6 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent guidance from leading forecast models drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across mid-80s outcomes for Houston's highest temperature on May 16, with GFS ensembles projecting warmer conditions near 88-90°F while ECMWF runs indicate cooler highs around 82-85°F—a 5-8°F spread noted in recent model comparisons for south-central Texas. National Weather Service blended guidance centers on 84-87°F under building high pressure following early May heavy rains, but uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cloud cover, light winds limiting mixing, and diurnal convective activity. Climatological normals hover near 87°F, yet model biases and ridge strength will clarify with today's 12z runs and evening NWS updates. Traders weigh these variables ahead of official observations at key Houston stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$100Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent guidance from leading forecast models drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across mid-80s outcomes for Houston's highest temperature on May 16, with GFS ensembles projecting warmer conditions near 88-90°F while ECMWF runs indicate cooler highs around 82-85°F—a 5-8°F spread noted in recent model comparisons for south-central Texas. National Weather Service blended guidance centers on 84-87°F under building high pressure following early May heavy rains, but uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cloud cover, light winds limiting mixing, and diurnal convective activity. Climatological normals hover near 87°F, yet model biases and ridge strength will clarify with today's 12z runs and evening NWS updates. Traders weigh these variables ahead of official observations at key Houston stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$100Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent guidance from leading forecast models drives the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across mid-80s outcomes for Houston's highest temperature on May 16, with GFS ensembles projecting warmer conditions near 88-90°F while ECMWF runs indicate cooler highs around 82-85°F—a 5-8°F spread noted in recent model comparisons for south-central Texas. National Weather Service blended guidance centers on 84-87°F under building high pressure following early May heavy rains, but uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cloud cover, light winds limiting mixing, and diurnal convective activity. Climatological normals hover near 87°F, yet model biases and ridge strength will clarify with today's 12z runs and evening NWS updates. Traders weigh these variables ahead of official observations at key Houston stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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