Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's May 16 high temperature, with model ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global systems like ECMWF and GFS clustering around 26–28°C amid divergent cloud cover projections. Patchy rain and thundery showers in recent CMA advisories, stemming from strengthening monsoon flow and sea breeze convergence, favor suppressed peaks near 26–27°C by limiting solar insolation and enhancing boundary layer cooling, while 28°C or higher requires clearer skies for urban heat buildup. Historical mid-May highs average 29°C, but current humid conditions (80%+ relative humidity) and recent southern China convective activity tilt odds away from extremes, with new 00Z/12Z model runs expected to resolve discrepancies before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 16?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 16?
28°C or higher 45%
27°C 22%
26°C 10%
25°C 3.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
9%
27°C
22%
28°C or higher
45%
28°C or higher 45%
27°C 22%
26°C 10%
25°C 3.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
18°C or below
$107 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$50 Vol.
1%
20°C
$10 Vol.
1%
21°C
$42 Vol.
1%
22°C
$25 Vol.
1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$20 Vol.
3%
26°C
$14 Vol.
9%
27°C
$14 Vol.
22%
28°C or higher
$21 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's May 16 high temperature, with model ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global systems like ECMWF and GFS clustering around 26–28°C amid divergent cloud cover projections. Patchy rain and thundery showers in recent CMA advisories, stemming from strengthening monsoon flow and sea breeze convergence, favor suppressed peaks near 26–27°C by limiting solar insolation and enhancing boundary layer cooling, while 28°C or higher requires clearer skies for urban heat buildup. Historical mid-May highs average 29°C, but current humid conditions (80%+ relative humidity) and recent southern China convective activity tilt odds away from extremes, with new 00Z/12Z model runs expected to resolve discrepancies before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$303Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's May 16 high temperature, with model ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global systems like ECMWF and GFS clustering around 26–28°C amid divergent cloud cover projections. Patchy rain and thundery showers in recent CMA advisories, stemming from strengthening monsoon flow and sea breeze convergence, favor suppressed peaks near 26–27°C by limiting solar insolation and enhancing boundary layer cooling, while 28°C or higher requires clearer skies for urban heat buildup. Historical mid-May highs average 29°C, but current humid conditions (80%+ relative humidity) and recent southern China convective activity tilt odds away from extremes, with new 00Z/12Z model runs expected to resolve discrepancies before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$303Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's May 16 high temperature, with model ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global systems like ECMWF and GFS clustering around 26–28°C amid divergent cloud cover projections. Patchy rain and thundery showers in recent CMA advisories, stemming from strengthening monsoon flow and sea breeze convergence, favor suppressed peaks near 26–27°C by limiting solar insolation and enhancing boundary layer cooling, while 28°C or higher requires clearer skies for urban heat buildup. Historical mid-May highs average 29°C, but current humid conditions (80%+ relative humidity) and recent southern China convective activity tilt odds away from extremes, with new 00Z/12Z model runs expected to resolve discrepancies before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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