Polymarket traders price a tightly contested April unemployment rate around 4.2-4.4%, with 4.3% leading at 30.5% implied probability—mirroring March's stable 4.3% print—closely followed by 4.2% (25.5%) and 4.4% (21.5%), reflecting resilient yet softening labor dynamics. March's BLS report revealed +178,000 nonfarm payrolls exceeding low expectations of 59,000, but household survey stagnation and contracting ISM services employment at 45.2 signaled caution. Recent initial jobless claims fluctuated modestly, rising to 214,000 for the week ending April 18 before falling to 189,000 by April 25, keeping layoff signals contained. Key swing factors include Friday's BLS Employment Situation release, where labor force participation trends and payroll revisions could differentiate outcomes amid ongoing Fed scrutiny of inflation and rate path expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTasa de desempleo de abril
Tasa de desempleo de abril
4,3% 31%
4,2% 26%
4.4% 21%
4,5% 6.9%
$36,754 Vol.
$36,754 Vol.
8 may 2026
≤3,9%
2%
4,0%
3%
4,1%
5%
4,2%
26%
4,3%
31%
4.4%
21%
4,5%
7%
4,6%
2%
≥4.7%
2%
4,3% 31%
4,2% 26%
4.4% 21%
4,5% 6.9%
$36,754 Vol.
$36,754 Vol.
8 may 2026
≤3,9%
$2,704 Vol.
2%
4,0%
$2,864 Vol.
3%
4,1%
$3,138 Vol.
5%
4,2%
$3,863 Vol.
26%
4,3%
$2,972 Vol.
31%
4.4%
$8,850 Vol.
21%
4,5%
$1,984 Vol.
7%
4,6%
$3,501 Vol.
2%
≥4.7%
$6,879 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a tightly contested April unemployment rate around 4.2-4.4%, with 4.3% leading at 30.5% implied probability—mirroring March's stable 4.3% print—closely followed by 4.2% (25.5%) and 4.4% (21.5%), reflecting resilient yet softening labor dynamics. March's BLS report revealed +178,000 nonfarm payrolls exceeding low expectations of 59,000, but household survey stagnation and contracting ISM services employment at 45.2 signaled caution. Recent initial jobless claims fluctuated modestly, rising to 214,000 for the week ending April 18 before falling to 189,000 by April 25, keeping layoff signals contained. Key swing factors include Friday's BLS Employment Situation release, where labor force participation trends and payroll revisions could differentiate outcomes amid ongoing Fed scrutiny of inflation and rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Volumen
$36,754Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a tightly contested April unemployment rate around 4.2-4.4%, with 4.3% leading at 30.5% implied probability—mirroring March's stable 4.3% print—closely followed by 4.2% (25.5%) and 4.4% (21.5%), reflecting resilient yet softening labor dynamics. March's BLS report revealed +178,000 nonfarm payrolls exceeding low expectations of 59,000, but household survey stagnation and contracting ISM services employment at 45.2 signaled caution. Recent initial jobless claims fluctuated modestly, rising to 214,000 for the week ending April 18 before falling to 189,000 by April 25, keeping layoff signals contained. Key swing factors include Friday's BLS Employment Situation release, where labor force participation trends and payroll revisions could differentiate outcomes amid ongoing Fed scrutiny of inflation and rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$36,754Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a tightly contested April unemployment rate around 4.2-4.4%, with 4.3% leading at 30.5% implied probability—mirroring March's stable 4.3% print—closely followed by 4.2% (25.5%) and 4.4% (21.5%), reflecting resilient yet softening labor dynamics. March's BLS report revealed +178,000 nonfarm payrolls exceeding low expectations of 59,000, but household survey stagnation and contracting ISM services employment at 45.2 signaled caution. Recent initial jobless claims fluctuated modestly, rising to 214,000 for the week ending April 18 before falling to 189,000 by April 25, keeping layoff signals contained. Key swing factors include Friday's BLS Employment Situation release, where labor force participation trends and payroll revisions could differentiate outcomes amid ongoing Fed scrutiny of inflation and rate path expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes