Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest Q1 2026 UK GDP expansion, with the 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter band at 32.8% implied probability narrowly leading the 0.6-0.9% outcome at 25.4%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid volatile monthly prints: flat January growth offset by February's 0.5% surge, per ONS data. April composite PMI rebound to 52.0 signals services-led resilience, but escalating cost pressures from energy disruptions linked to Iran conflict risks pulling growth lower, aligning with OECD and OBR forecasts trimming 2026 full-year expansion to 0.8-1.1%. Bank of England rate hold at 3.75% underscores inflation persistence curbing momentum, with swing factors hinging on March data ahead of the May 13 ONS first estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el primer trimestre de 2026?
0,9-1,2% 32.0%
0,3-0,6% 23.5%
0,6-0,9% 15.1%
1,2-1,5% 9.4%
$24,385 Vol.
$24,385 Vol.
14 may 2026
Negativo
3%
0,0-0,3%
7%
0,3-0,6%
23%
0,6-0,9%
25%
0,9-1,2%
32%
1,2-1,5%
9%
1,5-1,8%
6%
1,8%+
3%
0,9-1,2% 32.0%
0,3-0,6% 23.5%
0,6-0,9% 15.1%
1,2-1,5% 9.4%
$24,385 Vol.
$24,385 Vol.
14 may 2026
Negativo
$1,980 Vol.
3%
0,0-0,3%
$9,993 Vol.
7%
0,3-0,6%
$1,776 Vol.
23%
0,6-0,9%
$7,306 Vol.
25%
0,9-1,2%
$756 Vol.
32%
1,2-1,5%
$678 Vol.
9%
1,5-1,8%
$776 Vol.
6%
1,8%+
$1,120 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest Q1 2026 UK GDP expansion, with the 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter band at 32.8% implied probability narrowly leading the 0.6-0.9% outcome at 25.4%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid volatile monthly prints: flat January growth offset by February's 0.5% surge, per ONS data. April composite PMI rebound to 52.0 signals services-led resilience, but escalating cost pressures from energy disruptions linked to Iran conflict risks pulling growth lower, aligning with OECD and OBR forecasts trimming 2026 full-year expansion to 0.8-1.1%. Bank of England rate hold at 3.75% underscores inflation persistence curbing momentum, with swing factors hinging on March data ahead of the May 13 ONS first estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$24,385Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest Q1 2026 UK GDP expansion, with the 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter band at 32.8% implied probability narrowly leading the 0.6-0.9% outcome at 25.4%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid volatile monthly prints: flat January growth offset by February's 0.5% surge, per ONS data. April composite PMI rebound to 52.0 signals services-led resilience, but escalating cost pressures from energy disruptions linked to Iran conflict risks pulling growth lower, aligning with OECD and OBR forecasts trimming 2026 full-year expansion to 0.8-1.1%. Bank of England rate hold at 3.75% underscores inflation persistence curbing momentum, with swing factors hinging on March data ahead of the May 13 ONS first estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$24,385Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest Q1 2026 UK GDP expansion, with the 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter band at 32.8% implied probability narrowly leading the 0.6-0.9% outcome at 25.4%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid volatile monthly prints: flat January growth offset by February's 0.5% surge, per ONS data. April composite PMI rebound to 52.0 signals services-led resilience, but escalating cost pressures from energy disruptions linked to Iran conflict risks pulling growth lower, aligning with OECD and OBR forecasts trimming 2026 full-year expansion to 0.8-1.1%. Bank of England rate hold at 3.75% underscores inflation persistence curbing momentum, with swing factors hinging on March data ahead of the May 13 ONS first estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes