Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability that the U.S. general fertility rate will exceed Q4 2025's 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by preliminary CDC Wonder data showing January 2026 births plunging 4.8% year-over-year to 289,085 from 303,686. This extends the relentless downward momentum, with full-year 2025 hitting a record low of 53.1 amid soaring child-rearing costs, economic uncertainty, and cultural shifts toward delayed childbearing and smaller families. No reversal signals have emerged in early 2026 data, solidifying skepticism of an uptick; traders eye upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for Q1 confirmation, where any surprise rebound remains a long-shot upset scenario.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability that the U.S. general fertility rate will exceed Q4 2025's 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by preliminary CDC Wonder data showing January 2026 births plunging 4.8% year-over-year to 289,085 from 303,686. This extends the relentless downward momentum, with full-year 2025 hitting a record low of 53.1 amid soaring child-rearing costs, economic uncertainty, and cultural shifts toward delayed childbearing and smaller families. No reversal signals have emerged in early 2026 data, solidifying skepticism of an uptick; traders eye upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for Q1 confirmation, where any surprise rebound remains a long-shot upset scenario.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volumen
$58Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability that the U.S. general fertility rate will exceed Q4 2025's 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by preliminary CDC Wonder data showing January 2026 births plunging 4.8% year-over-year to 289,085 from 303,686. This extends the relentless downward momentum, with full-year 2025 hitting a record low of 53.1 amid soaring child-rearing costs, economic uncertainty, and cultural shifts toward delayed childbearing and smaller families. No reversal signals have emerged in early 2026 data, solidifying skepticism of an uptick; traders eye upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for Q1 confirmation, where any surprise rebound remains a long-shot upset scenario.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.
The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Volumen
$58Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability that the U.S. general fertility rate will exceed Q4 2025's 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in Q1 2026, driven by preliminary CDC Wonder data showing January 2026 births plunging 4.8% year-over-year to 289,085 from 303,686. This extends the relentless downward momentum, with full-year 2025 hitting a record low of 53.1 amid soaring child-rearing costs, economic uncertainty, and cultural shifts toward delayed childbearing and smaller families. No reversal signals have emerged in early 2026 data, solidifying skepticism of an uptick; traders eye upcoming CDC Vital Statistics Rapid Release for Q1 confirmation, where any surprise rebound remains a long-shot upset scenario.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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