China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth is expected to moderate from the 5.0% YoY pace recorded in Q1, reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand alongside resilient manufacturing and exports. April data highlighted the imbalance, with retail sales rising just 0.2% YoY—the weakest reading since late 2022—while industrial output and fixed-asset investment also cooled amid elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% annual target and ongoing fiscal support provide a floor, yet limited new stimulus and soft consumption continue to cap upside. Traders price the 4.6–4.9% band highest because it aligns with the observed post-Q1 slowdown and consensus full-year forecasts clustered near 4.4–4.7%, with only modest scope for policy shifts before the July Politburo review.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
4.6-4.9% 78%
4.9-5.2% 11%
4.3-4.6% 5.4%
5.2-5.5% <1%
$63,279 Vol.
$63,279 Vol.
16 jul 2026
<4.0%
1%
4.0-4.3%
<1%
4.3-4.6%
5%
4.6-4.9%
78%
4.9-5.2%
11%
5.2-5.5%
1%
5.5-5.8%
<1%
5.8-6.1%
<1%
6.1%+
<1%
4.6-4.9% 78%
4.9-5.2% 11%
4.3-4.6% 5.4%
5.2-5.5% <1%
$63,279 Vol.
$63,279 Vol.
16 jul 2026
<4.0%
$5,636 Vol.
1%
4.0-4.3%
$6,217 Vol.
<1%
4.3-4.6%
$6,600 Vol.
5%
4.6-4.9%
$12,633 Vol.
78%
4.9-5.2%
$7,482 Vol.
11%
5.2-5.5%
$7,980 Vol.
1%
5.5-5.8%
$6,030 Vol.
<1%
5.8-6.1%
$5,531 Vol.
<1%
6.1%+
$5,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth is expected to moderate from the 5.0% YoY pace recorded in Q1, reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand alongside resilient manufacturing and exports. April data highlighted the imbalance, with retail sales rising just 0.2% YoY—the weakest reading since late 2022—while industrial output and fixed-asset investment also cooled amid elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% annual target and ongoing fiscal support provide a floor, yet limited new stimulus and soft consumption continue to cap upside. Traders price the 4.6–4.9% band highest because it aligns with the observed post-Q1 slowdown and consensus full-year forecasts clustered near 4.4–4.7%, with only modest scope for policy shifts before the July Politburo review.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado abierto: Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$63,279Fecha de finalización
16 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth is expected to moderate from the 5.0% YoY pace recorded in Q1, reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand alongside resilient manufacturing and exports. April data highlighted the imbalance, with retail sales rising just 0.2% YoY—the weakest reading since late 2022—while industrial output and fixed-asset investment also cooled amid elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% annual target and ongoing fiscal support provide a floor, yet limited new stimulus and soft consumption continue to cap upside. Traders price the 4.6–4.9% band highest because it aligns with the observed post-Q1 slowdown and consensus full-year forecasts clustered near 4.4–4.7%, with only modest scope for policy shifts before the July Politburo review.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$63,279Fecha de finalización
16 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth is expected to moderate from the 5.0% YoY pace recorded in Q1, reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand alongside resilient manufacturing and exports. April data highlighted the imbalance, with retail sales rising just 0.2% YoY—the weakest reading since late 2022—while industrial output and fixed-asset investment also cooled amid elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Beijing’s 4.5–5.0% annual target and ongoing fiscal support provide a floor, yet limited new stimulus and soft consumption continue to cap upside. Traders price the 4.6–4.9% band highest because it aligns with the observed post-Q1 slowdown and consensus full-year forecasts clustered near 4.4–4.7%, with only modest scope for policy shifts before the July Politburo review.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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