China’s Q2 2026 year-over-year GDP growth faces moderating momentum after a stronger-than-expected 5.0% Q1 print, with April data revealing weak retail sales, softer industrial output, and persistent property-sector drag. Resilient export performance, aided by advanced manufacturing and external demand, has provided a buffer, yet domestic consumption remains subdued amid structural headwinds and limited policy stimulus. The official 4.5–5.0% annual target and analyst forecasts clustered around 4.4–4.8% for the full year anchor trader expectations that Q2 will settle below the Q1 pace but within the 4.6–4.9% band. Recent Middle East-related supply disruptions and mixed May indicators have reinforced this range as the clearest near-term outcome while leaving room for modest upside or downside depending on export resilience and any mid-year policy adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
4.6-4.9% 78%
4.9-5.2% 11%
4.3-4.6% 4.8%
5.2-5.5% <1%
$63,273 Vol.
$63,273 Vol.
16 jul 2026
<4.0%
1%
4.0-4.3%
<1%
4.3-4.6%
5%
4.6-4.9%
78%
4.9-5.2%
11%
5.2-5.5%
1%
5.5-5.8%
<1%
5.8-6.1%
<1%
6.1%+
<1%
4.6-4.9% 78%
4.9-5.2% 11%
4.3-4.6% 4.8%
5.2-5.5% <1%
$63,273 Vol.
$63,273 Vol.
16 jul 2026
<4.0%
$5,636 Vol.
1%
4.0-4.3%
$6,217 Vol.
<1%
4.3-4.6%
$6,600 Vol.
5%
4.6-4.9%
$12,627 Vol.
78%
4.9-5.2%
$7,482 Vol.
11%
5.2-5.5%
$7,980 Vol.
1%
5.5-5.8%
$6,030 Vol.
<1%
5.8-6.1%
$5,531 Vol.
<1%
6.1%+
$5,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 year-over-year GDP growth faces moderating momentum after a stronger-than-expected 5.0% Q1 print, with April data revealing weak retail sales, softer industrial output, and persistent property-sector drag. Resilient export performance, aided by advanced manufacturing and external demand, has provided a buffer, yet domestic consumption remains subdued amid structural headwinds and limited policy stimulus. The official 4.5–5.0% annual target and analyst forecasts clustered around 4.4–4.8% for the full year anchor trader expectations that Q2 will settle below the Q1 pace but within the 4.6–4.9% band. Recent Middle East-related supply disruptions and mixed May indicators have reinforced this range as the clearest near-term outcome while leaving room for modest upside or downside depending on export resilience and any mid-year policy adjustments.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado abierto: Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$63,273Fecha de finalización
16 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 year-over-year GDP growth faces moderating momentum after a stronger-than-expected 5.0% Q1 print, with April data revealing weak retail sales, softer industrial output, and persistent property-sector drag. Resilient export performance, aided by advanced manufacturing and external demand, has provided a buffer, yet domestic consumption remains subdued amid structural headwinds and limited policy stimulus. The official 4.5–5.0% annual target and analyst forecasts clustered around 4.4–4.8% for the full year anchor trader expectations that Q2 will settle below the Q1 pace but within the 4.6–4.9% band. Recent Middle East-related supply disruptions and mixed May indicators have reinforced this range as the clearest near-term outcome while leaving room for modest upside or downside depending on export resilience and any mid-year policy adjustments.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$63,273Fecha de finalización
16 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 year-over-year GDP growth faces moderating momentum after a stronger-than-expected 5.0% Q1 print, with April data revealing weak retail sales, softer industrial output, and persistent property-sector drag. Resilient export performance, aided by advanced manufacturing and external demand, has provided a buffer, yet domestic consumption remains subdued amid structural headwinds and limited policy stimulus. The official 4.5–5.0% annual target and analyst forecasts clustered around 4.4–4.8% for the full year anchor trader expectations that Q2 will settle below the Q1 pace but within the 4.6–4.9% band. Recent Middle East-related supply disruptions and mixed May indicators have reinforced this range as the clearest near-term outcome while leaving room for modest upside or downside depending on export resilience and any mid-year policy adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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