Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth, with 36% implied probability for 1.0-2.0% edging out 30% for 0-1.0%, reflecting downward revisions amid recent shocks. The Q1 2026 GDP flash print of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter—below the 0.2% consensus—signaled softening momentum, while ECB March staff projections cut the outlook to 0.9% (down 0.3 percentage points) and IMF's April update to 1.1% (from 1.4%), both citing Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges and heightened uncertainty curbing consumption and investment. Resilient labor markets and fiscal spending provide upside potential, but key swing factors include Q2 GDP data due late July and ECB June policy signals on rate path amid sticky inflation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1,0-2,0% 45%
<0% 9.2%
2,0-3,0% 9%
7.0%+ 6.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ene 2027
<0%
9%
0-1,0%
30%
1,0-2,0%
45%
2,0-3,0%
9%
3,0-4,0%
4%
4,0-5,0%
6%
5,0-6,0%
4%
6,0-7,0%
6%
7.0%+
7%
1,0-2,0% 45%
<0% 9.2%
2,0-3,0% 9%
7.0%+ 6.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ene 2027
<0%
$647 Vol.
9%
0-1,0%
$593 Vol.
30%
1,0-2,0%
$1,407 Vol.
45%
2,0-3,0%
$607 Vol.
9%
3,0-4,0%
$523 Vol.
4%
4,0-5,0%
$1,438 Vol.
6%
5,0-6,0%
$600 Vol.
4%
6,0-7,0%
$737 Vol.
6%
7.0%+
$970 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth, with 36% implied probability for 1.0-2.0% edging out 30% for 0-1.0%, reflecting downward revisions amid recent shocks. The Q1 2026 GDP flash print of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter—below the 0.2% consensus—signaled softening momentum, while ECB March staff projections cut the outlook to 0.9% (down 0.3 percentage points) and IMF's April update to 1.1% (from 1.4%), both citing Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges and heightened uncertainty curbing consumption and investment. Resilient labor markets and fiscal spending provide upside potential, but key swing factors include Q2 GDP data due late July and ECB June policy signals on rate path amid sticky inflation.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$7,521Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth, with 36% implied probability for 1.0-2.0% edging out 30% for 0-1.0%, reflecting downward revisions amid recent shocks. The Q1 2026 GDP flash print of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter—below the 0.2% consensus—signaled softening momentum, while ECB March staff projections cut the outlook to 0.9% (down 0.3 percentage points) and IMF's April update to 1.1% (from 1.4%), both citing Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges and heightened uncertainty curbing consumption and investment. Resilient labor markets and fiscal spending provide upside potential, but key swing factors include Q2 GDP data due late July and ECB June policy signals on rate path amid sticky inflation.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,521Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race for Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth, with 36% implied probability for 1.0-2.0% edging out 30% for 0-1.0%, reflecting downward revisions amid recent shocks. The Q1 2026 GDP flash print of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter—below the 0.2% consensus—signaled softening momentum, while ECB March staff projections cut the outlook to 0.9% (down 0.3 percentage points) and IMF's April update to 1.1% (from 1.4%), both citing Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges and heightened uncertainty curbing consumption and investment. Resilient labor markets and fiscal spending provide upside potential, but key swing factors include Q2 GDP data due late July and ECB June policy signals on rate path amid sticky inflation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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