Trader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual inflation remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities clustered around the 3.00%-3.99% (61.8% combined) and 4.00%-4.49% (27.5%) bands, reflecting economist consensus medians near 3.9% from Citi and IMF forecasts. Recent INEGI data showed headline inflation easing modestly to 4.53% year-on-year in early April—below March's 4.6% peak but above the 4.5% consensus—amid sticky core measures at 4.45%, prompting Banxico's split-vote 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite upward revisions to quarterly 2026 projections. Differentiating factors include core disinflation momentum versus peso depreciation near 17.5 USD/MXN risking imported pressures, Q1 GDP contraction curbing demand, and USMCA uncertainties; watch full April CPI this week and May Banxico meeting for catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.00% a 4.49% 39%
3.00% a 3.49% 30.0%
5.50%+ 12%
<2.50% 5.4%
$34,999 Vol.
$34,999 Vol.
8 ene 2027
<2.50%
5%
2.50% a 2.99%
3%
3.00% a 3.49%
30%
3.50% a 3.99%
31%
4.00% a 4.49%
28%
4.50% a 4.99%
5%
5.00% a 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
27%
4.00% a 4.49% 39%
3.00% a 3.49% 30.0%
5.50%+ 12%
<2.50% 5.4%
$34,999 Vol.
$34,999 Vol.
8 ene 2027
<2.50%
$0 Vol.
5%
2.50% a 2.99%
$0 Vol.
3%
3.00% a 3.49%
$25,781 Vol.
30%
3.50% a 3.99%
$348 Vol.
31%
4.00% a 4.49%
$403 Vol.
28%
4.50% a 4.99%
$3,094 Vol.
5%
5.00% a 5.49%
$401 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$4,972 Vol.
27%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual inflation remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities clustered around the 3.00%-3.99% (61.8% combined) and 4.00%-4.49% (27.5%) bands, reflecting economist consensus medians near 3.9% from Citi and IMF forecasts. Recent INEGI data showed headline inflation easing modestly to 4.53% year-on-year in early April—below March's 4.6% peak but above the 4.5% consensus—amid sticky core measures at 4.45%, prompting Banxico's split-vote 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite upward revisions to quarterly 2026 projections. Differentiating factors include core disinflation momentum versus peso depreciation near 17.5 USD/MXN risking imported pressures, Q1 GDP contraction curbing demand, and USMCA uncertainties; watch full April CPI this week and May Banxico meeting for catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$34,999Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual inflation remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities clustered around the 3.00%-3.99% (61.8% combined) and 4.00%-4.49% (27.5%) bands, reflecting economist consensus medians near 3.9% from Citi and IMF forecasts. Recent INEGI data showed headline inflation easing modestly to 4.53% year-on-year in early April—below March's 4.6% peak but above the 4.5% consensus—amid sticky core measures at 4.45%, prompting Banxico's split-vote 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite upward revisions to quarterly 2026 projections. Differentiating factors include core disinflation momentum versus peso depreciation near 17.5 USD/MXN risking imported pressures, Q1 GDP contraction curbing demand, and USMCA uncertainties; watch full April CPI this week and May Banxico meeting for catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$34,999Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual inflation remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities clustered around the 3.00%-3.99% (61.8% combined) and 4.00%-4.49% (27.5%) bands, reflecting economist consensus medians near 3.9% from Citi and IMF forecasts. Recent INEGI data showed headline inflation easing modestly to 4.53% year-on-year in early April—below March's 4.6% peak but above the 4.5% consensus—amid sticky core measures at 4.45%, prompting Banxico's split-vote 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite upward revisions to quarterly 2026 projections. Differentiating factors include core disinflation momentum versus peso depreciation near 17.5 USD/MXN risking imported pressures, Q1 GDP contraction curbing demand, and USMCA uncertainties; watch full April CPI this week and May Banxico meeting for catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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