China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, announced during the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent bracket. Most institutional forecasts from the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and others cluster near 4.4–4.8 percent, reflecting continued export strength and targeted fiscal support offset by persistent weak domestic consumption, property sector drag, and higher energy costs linked to external conflicts. Official Q1 2026 data showed 5 percent expansion driven by industrial output and trade, yet authorities highlighted imbalances between supply and demand alongside geopolitical uncertainties that could cap upside. These factors sustain the narrow consensus range while limiting probabilities for outcomes above 5 percent or below 4 percent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.0–5.0% 78%
5,0–6,0% 20.9%
3,0–4,0 % 1.5%
6,0-7,0% <1%
$707,321 Vol.
$707,321 Vol.
31 ene 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
2%
4.0–5.0%
78%
5,0–6,0%
21%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0%
<1%
9,0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 78%
5,0–6,0% 20.9%
3,0–4,0 % 1.5%
6,0-7,0% <1%
$707,321 Vol.
$707,321 Vol.
31 ene 2026
<1,0%
$57,113 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$72,508 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$41,897 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$65,926 Vol.
2%
4.0–5.0%
$162,222 Vol.
78%
5,0–6,0%
$65,323 Vol.
21%
6,0-7,0%
$64,164 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$60,435 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$26,425 Vol.
<1%
9,0%+
$91,307 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, announced during the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent bracket. Most institutional forecasts from the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and others cluster near 4.4–4.8 percent, reflecting continued export strength and targeted fiscal support offset by persistent weak domestic consumption, property sector drag, and higher energy costs linked to external conflicts. Official Q1 2026 data showed 5 percent expansion driven by industrial output and trade, yet authorities highlighted imbalances between supply and demand alongside geopolitical uncertainties that could cap upside. These factors sustain the narrow consensus range while limiting probabilities for outcomes above 5 percent or below 4 percent.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$707,321Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, announced during the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent bracket. Most institutional forecasts from the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and others cluster near 4.4–4.8 percent, reflecting continued export strength and targeted fiscal support offset by persistent weak domestic consumption, property sector drag, and higher energy costs linked to external conflicts. Official Q1 2026 data showed 5 percent expansion driven by industrial output and trade, yet authorities highlighted imbalances between supply and demand alongside geopolitical uncertainties that could cap upside. These factors sustain the narrow consensus range while limiting probabilities for outcomes above 5 percent or below 4 percent.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$707,321Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, announced during the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent bracket. Most institutional forecasts from the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and others cluster near 4.4–4.8 percent, reflecting continued export strength and targeted fiscal support offset by persistent weak domestic consumption, property sector drag, and higher energy costs linked to external conflicts. Official Q1 2026 data showed 5 percent expansion driven by industrial output and trade, yet authorities highlighted imbalances between supply and demand alongside geopolitical uncertainties that could cap upside. These factors sustain the narrow consensus range while limiting probabilities for outcomes above 5 percent or below 4 percent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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