China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader consensus at 77.5% odds for the 4.0–5.0% range, bolstered by Q1 expansion of 5.0% year-on-year that exceeded forecasts amid resilient exports despite global headwinds like the Iran war. Forecasts from IMF (4.4%), Vanguard (4.7%), and others cluster around 4.5–4.8%, signaling a likely Q2 slowdown from property sector weakness and subdued domestic demand, with limited aggressive stimulus signaled so far. Recent April factory PMI expansion sustains momentum, but external risks and historical patterns of target-constrained outcomes keep 5.0–6.0% at 18.9%, emphasizing the closely contested upper target boundary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.0–5.0% 78%
5,0–6,0% 19.0%
3,0–4,0 % 2.7%
<1,0% <1%
$460,054 Vol.
$460,054 Vol.
31 ene 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
3%
4.0–5.0%
78%
5,0–6,0%
19%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0%
<1%
9,0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 78%
5,0–6,0% 19.0%
3,0–4,0 % 2.7%
<1,0% <1%
$460,054 Vol.
$460,054 Vol.
31 ene 2026
<1,0%
$39,968 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$38,658 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$18,104 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$26,936 Vol.
3%
4.0–5.0%
$113,481 Vol.
78%
5,0–6,0%
$43,742 Vol.
19%
6,0-7,0%
$35,741 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$43,269 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$18,029 Vol.
<1%
9,0%+
$82,126 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader consensus at 77.5% odds for the 4.0–5.0% range, bolstered by Q1 expansion of 5.0% year-on-year that exceeded forecasts amid resilient exports despite global headwinds like the Iran war. Forecasts from IMF (4.4%), Vanguard (4.7%), and others cluster around 4.5–4.8%, signaling a likely Q2 slowdown from property sector weakness and subdued domestic demand, with limited aggressive stimulus signaled so far. Recent April factory PMI expansion sustains momentum, but external risks and historical patterns of target-constrained outcomes keep 5.0–6.0% at 18.9%, emphasizing the closely contested upper target boundary.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$460,054Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader consensus at 77.5% odds for the 4.0–5.0% range, bolstered by Q1 expansion of 5.0% year-on-year that exceeded forecasts amid resilient exports despite global headwinds like the Iran war. Forecasts from IMF (4.4%), Vanguard (4.7%), and others cluster around 4.5–4.8%, signaling a likely Q2 slowdown from property sector weakness and subdued domestic demand, with limited aggressive stimulus signaled so far. Recent April factory PMI expansion sustains momentum, but external risks and historical patterns of target-constrained outcomes keep 5.0–6.0% at 18.9%, emphasizing the closely contested upper target boundary.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$460,054Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader consensus at 77.5% odds for the 4.0–5.0% range, bolstered by Q1 expansion of 5.0% year-on-year that exceeded forecasts amid resilient exports despite global headwinds like the Iran war. Forecasts from IMF (4.4%), Vanguard (4.7%), and others cluster around 4.5–4.8%, signaling a likely Q2 slowdown from property sector weakness and subdued domestic demand, with limited aggressive stimulus signaled so far. Recent April factory PMI expansion sustains momentum, but external risks and historical patterns of target-constrained outcomes keep 5.0–6.0% at 18.9%, emphasizing the closely contested upper target boundary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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