Polymarket traders are pricing subdued April nonfarm payrolls growth, with the 50k–100k bin leading at a 35% implied probability amid closely contested odds across low ranges (100k–150k at 29%, 0–50k at 26%). This trader consensus reflects cooling labor market dynamics, driven by ADP's preliminary National Employment Report showing private employers adding just 39k jobs weekly through mid-April—far below March's 178k rebound from February's contraction—and initial jobless claims rising to 214k in the survey week ending April 18 before easing to 189k. Contracting ISM manufacturing employment (48.7) and declining JOLTS openings (6.88 million in February) underscore deceleration, though March's upside surprise tempers bearish bets; today's BLS release will resolve amid high uncertainty over survey-period volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many jobs added in April?
How many jobs added in April?
50k – 100k 34%
100k – 150k 17%
150k – 200k 14%
0 – 50k 8%
<-50k
6%
-50k – 0
23%
0 – 50k
26%
50k – 100k
34%
100k – 150k
29%
150k – 200k
20%
200k – 250k
8%
250k+
2%
50k – 100k 34%
100k – 150k 17%
150k – 200k 14%
0 – 50k 8%
<-50k
6%
-50k – 0
23%
0 – 50k
26%
50k – 100k
34%
100k – 150k
29%
150k – 200k
20%
200k – 250k
8%
250k+
2%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders are pricing subdued April nonfarm payrolls growth, with the 50k–100k bin leading at a 35% implied probability amid closely contested odds across low ranges (100k–150k at 29%, 0–50k at 26%). This trader consensus reflects cooling labor market dynamics, driven by ADP's preliminary National Employment Report showing private employers adding just 39k jobs weekly through mid-April—far below March's 178k rebound from February's contraction—and initial jobless claims rising to 214k in the survey week ending April 18 before easing to 189k. Contracting ISM manufacturing employment (48.7) and declining JOLTS openings (6.88 million in February) underscore deceleration, though March's upside surprise tempers bearish bets; today's BLS release will resolve amid high uncertainty over survey-period volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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