**Trader consensus against negative 2026 U.S. GDP growth, reflected in the 84.7% market-implied probability for “No,” rests on broad agreement among forecasters for annual expansion of 2.0–2.5%.** The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP growth in Q1 2026, following a subdued 0.5% in Q4 2025, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected 3.3% for Q2 as of June 9. Supporting factors include a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5%, AI-led capital investment, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act that boosted consumer spending and business outlays. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have lifted inflation but remain viewed as containable without tipping the economy into contraction. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC decision, Q2 GDP and employment releases, and oil-price trends, which continue to anchor the skin-in-the-game probability assessment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
$27,710 Vol.
$27,710 Vol.
29 ene 2027
Sí
$27,710 Vol.
$27,710 Vol.
29 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.**Trader consensus against negative 2026 U.S. GDP growth, reflected in the 84.7% market-implied probability for “No,” rests on broad agreement among forecasters for annual expansion of 2.0–2.5%.** The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP growth in Q1 2026, following a subdued 0.5% in Q4 2025, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected 3.3% for Q2 as of June 9. Supporting factors include a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5%, AI-led capital investment, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act that boosted consumer spending and business outlays. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have lifted inflation but remain viewed as containable without tipping the economy into contraction. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC decision, Q2 GDP and employment releases, and oil-price trends, which continue to anchor the skin-in-the-game probability assessment.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$27,710Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.**Trader consensus against negative 2026 U.S. GDP growth, reflected in the 84.7% market-implied probability for “No,” rests on broad agreement among forecasters for annual expansion of 2.0–2.5%.** The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP growth in Q1 2026, following a subdued 0.5% in Q4 2025, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected 3.3% for Q2 as of June 9. Supporting factors include a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5%, AI-led capital investment, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act that boosted consumer spending and business outlays. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have lifted inflation but remain viewed as containable without tipping the economy into contraction. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC decision, Q2 GDP and employment releases, and oil-price trends, which continue to anchor the skin-in-the-game probability assessment.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$27,710Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus against negative 2026 U.S. GDP growth, reflected in the 84.7% market-implied probability for “No,” rests on broad agreement among forecasters for annual expansion of 2.0–2.5%.** The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP growth in Q1 2026, following a subdued 0.5% in Q4 2025, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected 3.3% for Q2 as of June 9. Supporting factors include a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5%, AI-led capital investment, and fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act that boosted consumer spending and business outlays. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have lifted inflation but remain viewed as containable without tipping the economy into contraction. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC decision, Q2 GDP and employment releases, and oil-price trends, which continue to anchor the skin-in-the-game probability assessment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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