OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 series currently trails the HLE leaderboard, with GPT-5.4 Pro scoring roughly 41-58% depending on the evaluation, behind leaders such as Claude Fable 5 or Mythos 5 at 53%+ and Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview near 45%. Progress has accelerated from single-digit results in early 2025 to the mid-40s range through successive reasoning-model releases and agentic techniques, but no major OpenAI update has shipped in the past month. With only two weeks until June 30, trader sentiment hinges on whether an imminent internal scaling run, fine-tune, or public preview can close the gap before the cutoff; historical release cadence suggests limited room for surprise jumps in that narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,337 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
50%+
26%
$25,337 Vol.
50%+
$25,337 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 series currently trails the HLE leaderboard, with GPT-5.4 Pro scoring roughly 41-58% depending on the evaluation, behind leaders such as Claude Fable 5 or Mythos 5 at 53%+ and Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview near 45%. Progress has accelerated from single-digit results in early 2025 to the mid-40s range through successive reasoning-model releases and agentic techniques, but no major OpenAI update has shipped in the past month. With only two weeks until June 30, trader sentiment hinges on whether an imminent internal scaling run, fine-tune, or public preview can close the gap before the cutoff; historical release cadence suggests limited room for surprise jumps in that narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$25,337End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 series currently trails the HLE leaderboard, with GPT-5.4 Pro scoring roughly 41-58% depending on the evaluation, behind leaders such as Claude Fable 5 or Mythos 5 at 53%+ and Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview near 45%. Progress has accelerated from single-digit results in early 2025 to the mid-40s range through successive reasoning-model releases and agentic techniques, but no major OpenAI update has shipped in the past month. With only two weeks until June 30, trader sentiment hinges on whether an imminent internal scaling run, fine-tune, or public preview can close the gap before the cutoff; historical release cadence suggests limited room for surprise jumps in that narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any OpenAI GPT model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Volume
$25,337End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 series currently trails the HLE leaderboard, with GPT-5.4 Pro scoring roughly 41-58% depending on the evaluation, behind leaders such as Claude Fable 5 or Mythos 5 at 53%+ and Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview near 45%. Progress has accelerated from single-digit results in early 2025 to the mid-40s range through successive reasoning-model releases and agentic techniques, but no major OpenAI update has shipped in the past month. With only two weeks until June 30, trader sentiment hinges on whether an imminent internal scaling run, fine-tune, or public preview can close the gap before the cutoff; historical release cadence suggests limited room for surprise jumps in that narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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