NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no credible threats for Earth impacts in 2026 from tracked asteroids, with two minor objects—(2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities under 0.004%, far too small for 5-kiloton energy release. Trader consensus reflects historical bolide frequencies, where events yielding 5 kt or more (comparable to minor airbursts causing window damage) occur globally about once every 1–2 years, implying roughly 37.5% odds for at least one in 2026. A March 2026 American Meteor Society report documented a 3.9-sigma surge in Q1 fireballs—40 events with 50+ witnesses versus a 20-event average, including sonic-boom producers like the 0.25-kt Ohio event—elevating perceived meteoroid flux without reaching 5 kt per CNEOS data through April. Ongoing NEO surveys and fireball telemetry updates will inform shifts as the year progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$295,077 Vol.
$295,077 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$295,077 Vol.
$295,077 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no credible threats for Earth impacts in 2026 from tracked asteroids, with two minor objects—(2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities under 0.004%, far too small for 5-kiloton energy release. Trader consensus reflects historical bolide frequencies, where events yielding 5 kt or more (comparable to minor airbursts causing window damage) occur globally about once every 1–2 years, implying roughly 37.5% odds for at least one in 2026. A March 2026 American Meteor Society report documented a 3.9-sigma surge in Q1 fireballs—40 events with 50+ witnesses versus a 20-event average, including sonic-boom producers like the 0.25-kt Ohio event—elevating perceived meteoroid flux without reaching 5 kt per CNEOS data through April. Ongoing NEO surveys and fireball telemetry updates will inform shifts as the year progresses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$295,077End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no credible threats for Earth impacts in 2026 from tracked asteroids, with two minor objects—(2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities under 0.004%, far too small for 5-kiloton energy release. Trader consensus reflects historical bolide frequencies, where events yielding 5 kt or more (comparable to minor airbursts causing window damage) occur globally about once every 1–2 years, implying roughly 37.5% odds for at least one in 2026. A March 2026 American Meteor Society report documented a 3.9-sigma surge in Q1 fireballs—40 events with 50+ witnesses versus a 20-event average, including sonic-boom producers like the 0.25-kt Ohio event—elevating perceived meteoroid flux without reaching 5 kt per CNEOS data through April. Ongoing NEO surveys and fireball telemetry updates will inform shifts as the year progresses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$295,077End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no credible threats for Earth impacts in 2026 from tracked asteroids, with two minor objects—(2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities under 0.004%, far too small for 5-kiloton energy release. Trader consensus reflects historical bolide frequencies, where events yielding 5 kt or more (comparable to minor airbursts causing window damage) occur globally about once every 1–2 years, implying roughly 37.5% odds for at least one in 2026. A March 2026 American Meteor Society report documented a 3.9-sigma surge in Q1 fireballs—40 events with 50+ witnesses versus a 20-event average, including sonic-boom producers like the 0.25-kt Ohio event—elevating perceived meteoroid flux without reaching 5 kt per CNEOS data through April. Ongoing NEO surveys and fireball telemetry updates will inform shifts as the year progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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