SpaceX’s Starship program has driven the 61% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028 through steady booster progress offset by persistent upper-stage hurdles. Multiple 2025 flights achieved tower catches of the Super Heavy booster and its first reuse, while Version 3 vehicles introduced in 2026 demonstrated improved Raptor 3 performance and in-space capabilities. However, the May 2026 V3 debut exposed ongoing difficulties with engine relights, controlled reentry, and ship recovery essential for rapid full-stack reuse. Traders weigh SpaceX’s aggressive flight cadence and Musk’s 2026 demonstration targets against typical timeline slippage and the need for repeated successful catches of both stages. Upcoming V3 test flights focused on propellant transfer and dual recovery remain key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment.