**Claude Opus 4.6 with its adaptive thinking variant leads trader sentiment at 62% implied probability because U.S. export controls issued June 12 abruptly curtailed access to the newer Claude Fable 5 just days after its June 9 launch.** The Mythos-class model, which briefly topped agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks with its 1M-token context and always-on thinking, was globally restricted for most users following a Commerce Department directive citing national security, limiting its effective availability before the June 20 resolution. Opus 4.6's established 1M context window, agent teams, and reliable performance on SWE-bench and similar evaluations provide the stable frontier option amid the disruption, while Fable 5's safety reroutes to Opus 4.8 and limited Mythos 5 availability further cap its upside. With the market resolving in six days and older Opus variants slated for deprecation June 15, traders view the thinking-enabled 4.6 as the clearest near-term leader absent rapid regulatory reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 62%
claude-fable-5 14%
Other 8.0%
claude-opus-4-6 2.4%
NEW
$11,327 Vol.
NEW
$11,327 Vol.
Jun 20, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
62%
claude-fable-5
14%
Other
9%
claude-opus-4-6
2%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 62%
claude-fable-5 14%
Other 8.0%
claude-opus-4-6 2.4%
NEW
$11,327 Vol.
NEW
$11,327 Vol.
Jun 20, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$3,790 Vol.
62%
claude-fable-5
$4,041 Vol.
14%
Other
$1,921 Vol.
9%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,575 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Claude Opus 4.6 with its adaptive thinking variant leads trader sentiment at 62% implied probability because U.S. export controls issued June 12 abruptly curtailed access to the newer Claude Fable 5 just days after its June 9 launch.** The Mythos-class model, which briefly topped agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks with its 1M-token context and always-on thinking, was globally restricted for most users following a Commerce Department directive citing national security, limiting its effective availability before the June 20 resolution. Opus 4.6's established 1M context window, agent teams, and reliable performance on SWE-bench and similar evaluations provide the stable frontier option amid the disruption, while Fable 5's safety reroutes to Opus 4.8 and limited Mythos 5 availability further cap its upside. With the market resolving in six days and older Opus variants slated for deprecation June 15, traders view the thinking-enabled 4.6 as the clearest near-term leader absent rapid regulatory reversal.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$11,327End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Claude Opus 4.6 with its adaptive thinking variant leads trader sentiment at 62% implied probability because U.S. export controls issued June 12 abruptly curtailed access to the newer Claude Fable 5 just days after its June 9 launch.** The Mythos-class model, which briefly topped agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks with its 1M-token context and always-on thinking, was globally restricted for most users following a Commerce Department directive citing national security, limiting its effective availability before the June 20 resolution. Opus 4.6's established 1M context window, agent teams, and reliable performance on SWE-bench and similar evaluations provide the stable frontier option amid the disruption, while Fable 5's safety reroutes to Opus 4.8 and limited Mythos 5 availability further cap its upside. With the market resolving in six days and older Opus variants slated for deprecation June 15, traders view the thinking-enabled 4.6 as the clearest near-term leader absent rapid regulatory reversal.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$11,327End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Claude Opus 4.6 with its adaptive thinking variant leads trader sentiment at 62% implied probability because U.S. export controls issued June 12 abruptly curtailed access to the newer Claude Fable 5 just days after its June 9 launch.** The Mythos-class model, which briefly topped agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks with its 1M-token context and always-on thinking, was globally restricted for most users following a Commerce Department directive citing national security, limiting its effective availability before the June 20 resolution. Opus 4.6's established 1M context window, agent teams, and reliable performance on SWE-bench and similar evaluations provide the stable frontier option amid the disruption, while Fable 5's safety reroutes to Opus 4.8 and limited Mythos 5 availability further cap its upside. With the market resolving in six days and older Opus variants slated for deprecation June 15, traders view the thinking-enabled 4.6 as the clearest near-term leader absent rapid regulatory reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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