US forces conducted a precision military raid into Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas—the first direct US intervention in the region since Panama in 1989—prompting trader consensus on prior markets resolving affirmatively amid heightened tensions over drug trafficking, oil sanctions, and border security with Guyana and Colombia. No further troop entries have occurred since, with President Trump indicating temporary US oversight during a political transition but no large-scale ground deployment. In late April, over 100 US diplomats, CIA agents, and military advisors arrived in Caracas to support elections, emphasizing diplomatic levers over escalation; upcoming polls and coalition negotiations could influence odds if instability prompts renewed military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,283,190 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
June 30
12%
$1,283,190 Vol.
June 30
$198,427 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US forces conducted a precision military raid into Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas—the first direct US intervention in the region since Panama in 1989—prompting trader consensus on prior markets resolving affirmatively amid heightened tensions over drug trafficking, oil sanctions, and border security with Guyana and Colombia. No further troop entries have occurred since, with President Trump indicating temporary US oversight during a political transition but no large-scale ground deployment. In late April, over 100 US diplomats, CIA agents, and military advisors arrived in Caracas to support elections, emphasizing diplomatic levers over escalation; upcoming polls and coalition negotiations could influence odds if instability prompts renewed military action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,283,190End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US forces conducted a precision military raid into Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas—the first direct US intervention in the region since Panama in 1989—prompting trader consensus on prior markets resolving affirmatively amid heightened tensions over drug trafficking, oil sanctions, and border security with Guyana and Colombia. No further troop entries have occurred since, with President Trump indicating temporary US oversight during a political transition but no large-scale ground deployment. In late April, over 100 US diplomats, CIA agents, and military advisors arrived in Caracas to support elections, emphasizing diplomatic levers over escalation; upcoming polls and coalition negotiations could influence odds if instability prompts renewed military action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,283,190End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US forces conducted a precision military raid into Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas—the first direct US intervention in the region since Panama in 1989—prompting trader consensus on prior markets resolving affirmatively amid heightened tensions over drug trafficking, oil sanctions, and border security with Guyana and Colombia. No further troop entries have occurred since, with President Trump indicating temporary US oversight during a political transition but no large-scale ground deployment. In late April, over 100 US diplomats, CIA agents, and military advisors arrived in Caracas to support elections, emphasizing diplomatic levers over escalation; upcoming polls and coalition negotiations could influence odds if instability prompts renewed military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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