Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability for "No" on Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven primarily by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting a FY2026 deficit of $1.85 trillion to $1.9 trillion—exceeding FY2025's $1.8 trillion final—amid Trump tax cut extensions and spending initiatives adding $1.4 trillion to 10-year deficits. Although cumulative FY2026 borrowing through April trails last year's pace by about 10% at roughly $1.17 trillion, thanks to early tariff revenues offsetting some outlays, markets price in accelerating second-half spending, rising net interest costs nearing $1 trillion annually, and the April FY2027 budget proposal's limited restraint despite proposed non-defense cuts. Key catalysts include upcoming Monthly Treasury Statements and congressional appropriations, with historical precedents of policy-driven deficit expansions tempering optimism for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability for "No" on Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven primarily by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting a FY2026 deficit of $1.85 trillion to $1.9 trillion—exceeding FY2025's $1.8 trillion final—amid Trump tax cut extensions and spending initiatives adding $1.4 trillion to 10-year deficits. Although cumulative FY2026 borrowing through April trails last year's pace by about 10% at roughly $1.17 trillion, thanks to early tariff revenues offsetting some outlays, markets price in accelerating second-half spending, rising net interest costs nearing $1 trillion annually, and the April FY2027 budget proposal's limited restraint despite proposed non-defense cuts. Key catalysts include upcoming Monthly Treasury Statements and congressional appropriations, with historical precedents of policy-driven deficit expansions tempering optimism for reversal.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$868End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability for "No" on Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven primarily by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting a FY2026 deficit of $1.85 trillion to $1.9 trillion—exceeding FY2025's $1.8 trillion final—amid Trump tax cut extensions and spending initiatives adding $1.4 trillion to 10-year deficits. Although cumulative FY2026 borrowing through April trails last year's pace by about 10% at roughly $1.17 trillion, thanks to early tariff revenues offsetting some outlays, markets price in accelerating second-half spending, rising net interest costs nearing $1 trillion annually, and the April FY2027 budget proposal's limited restraint despite proposed non-defense cuts. Key catalysts include upcoming Monthly Treasury Statements and congressional appropriations, with historical precedents of policy-driven deficit expansions tempering optimism for reversal.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$868End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability for "No" on Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven primarily by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting a FY2026 deficit of $1.85 trillion to $1.9 trillion—exceeding FY2025's $1.8 trillion final—amid Trump tax cut extensions and spending initiatives adding $1.4 trillion to 10-year deficits. Although cumulative FY2026 borrowing through April trails last year's pace by about 10% at roughly $1.17 trillion, thanks to early tariff revenues offsetting some outlays, markets price in accelerating second-half spending, rising net interest costs nearing $1 trillion annually, and the April FY2027 budget proposal's limited restraint despite proposed non-defense cuts. Key catalysts include upcoming Monthly Treasury Statements and congressional appropriations, with historical precedents of policy-driven deficit expansions tempering optimism for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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