Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress, secured after the 2024 elections and holding narrow edges as of mid-2026, represent the central institutional barrier to impeachment by December 31, 2026. House passage of articles requires a simple majority, but no Republican members have signaled support for such action despite Democratic resolutions introduced in 2025 and renewed calls in April 2026 tied to presidential statements on the Iran conflict. Senate conviction demands a two-thirds threshold that remains out of reach under current partisan alignments. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could alter House control, yet any Democratic gains would seat a new Congress only in January 2027, outside the market's resolution window. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no impeachment reflects these structural vote margins and the absence of cross-party momentum capable of overcoming them before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$872,178 Vol.
$872,178 Vol.
$872,178 Vol.
$872,178 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress, secured after the 2024 elections and holding narrow edges as of mid-2026, represent the central institutional barrier to impeachment by December 31, 2026. House passage of articles requires a simple majority, but no Republican members have signaled support for such action despite Democratic resolutions introduced in 2025 and renewed calls in April 2026 tied to presidential statements on the Iran conflict. Senate conviction demands a two-thirds threshold that remains out of reach under current partisan alignments. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could alter House control, yet any Democratic gains would seat a new Congress only in January 2027, outside the market's resolution window. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no impeachment reflects these structural vote margins and the absence of cross-party momentum capable of overcoming them before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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