Trump's ongoing first term as president, following the 2024 election, shows no signs of health crises, legal pressures, or institutional conflicts that have historically prompted early departures. The 93.5% implied probability for no resignation by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any official statements, party signals, or verifiable developments suggesting an exit, consistent with low historical base rates for such moves outside extraordinary circumstances. Traders appear to price in continuity through the 2026 midterms and standard term expectations, with no recent catalysts like cabinet turmoil or confirmation fights altering that consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$484,017 Vol.
$484,017 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$484,017 Vol.
$484,017 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's ongoing first term as president, following the 2024 election, shows no signs of health crises, legal pressures, or institutional conflicts that have historically prompted early departures. The 93.5% implied probability for no resignation by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any official statements, party signals, or verifiable developments suggesting an exit, consistent with low historical base rates for such moves outside extraordinary circumstances. Traders appear to price in continuity through the 2026 midterms and standard term expectations, with no recent catalysts like cabinet turmoil or confirmation fights altering that consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$484,017End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's ongoing first term as president, following the 2024 election, shows no signs of health crises, legal pressures, or institutional conflicts that have historically prompted early departures. The 93.5% implied probability for no resignation by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any official statements, party signals, or verifiable developments suggesting an exit, consistent with low historical base rates for such moves outside extraordinary circumstances. Traders appear to price in continuity through the 2026 midterms and standard term expectations, with no recent catalysts like cabinet turmoil or confirmation fights altering that consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$484,017End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trump's ongoing first term as president, following the 2024 election, shows no signs of health crises, legal pressures, or institutional conflicts that have historically prompted early departures. The 93.5% implied probability for no resignation by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any official statements, party signals, or verifiable developments suggesting an exit, consistent with low historical base rates for such moves outside extraordinary circumstances. Traders appear to price in continuity through the 2026 midterms and standard term expectations, with no recent catalysts like cabinet turmoil or confirmation fights altering that consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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