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Politics·Congress

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
Politics·Congress

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$181 Vol.

Polymarket

May 15

$106 Vol.

22%

May 22

$75 Vol.

57%

May 31

$0 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republicans advanced the FY2026 budget reconciliation process after the Senate adopted S.Con.Res. 33 on April 23 by a 50-48 party-line vote and the House approved the Senate version on April 30, setting instructions for committees to draft a narrow bill funding DHS agencies including ICE and CBP for immigration enforcement. This filibuster-proof path via simple majority addresses partial government shutdown risks without Democratic support, though Byrd Rule compliance limits non-budgetary provisions. GOP leaders face internal unity tests during committee markups and potential vote-a-rama amendments, with the Senate in recess until May 12 and floor passage timeline key to market resolution. Trader consensus reflects procedural progress amid narrow majorities and competing priorities like a possible second reconciliation package.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$181
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republicans advanced the FY2026 budget reconciliation process after the Senate adopted S.Con.Res. 33 on April 23 by a 50-48 party-line vote and the House approved the Senate version on April 30, setting instructions for committees to draft a narrow bill funding DHS agencies including ICE and CBP for immigration enforcement. This filibuster-proof path via simple majority addresses partial government shutdown risks without Democratic support, though Byrd Rule compliance limits non-budgetary provisions. GOP leaders face internal unity tests during committee markups and potential vote-a-rama amendments, with the Senate in recess until May 12 and floor passage timeline key to market resolution. Trader consensus reflects procedural progress amid narrow majorities and competing priorities like a possible second reconciliation package.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$181
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 22" at 57%, followed by "May 31" at 51%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" is "May 22" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 51%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.