Reza Pahlavi remains in exile as of mid-2026, with no verified entry into Iran despite ongoing regime instability following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pahlavi has publicly stated readiness to lead a transitional government immediately upon the Islamic Republic's collapse, while noting plans to return as soon as security conditions allow, potentially before full regime change. Recent activities center on European diplomatic outreach, CPAC appearances, and opposition coordination rather than domestic travel. Related prediction markets assign low probabilities to a 2026 return, citing barriers such as limited territorial control by opposition forces, assassination risks, and the need for verifiable public presence to trigger resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any further leadership vacuums, ceasefires, or internal power shifts within Iran's governing institutions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,980,793 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
June 30
1%
December 31
9%
$20,980,793 Vol.
June 30
$6,183,912 Vol.
1%
December 31
$1,805,097 Vol.
9%
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Reza Pahlavi remains in exile as of mid-2026, with no verified entry into Iran despite ongoing regime instability following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pahlavi has publicly stated readiness to lead a transitional government immediately upon the Islamic Republic's collapse, while noting plans to return as soon as security conditions allow, potentially before full regime change. Recent activities center on European diplomatic outreach, CPAC appearances, and opposition coordination rather than domestic travel. Related prediction markets assign low probabilities to a 2026 return, citing barriers such as limited territorial control by opposition forces, assassination risks, and the need for verifiable public presence to trigger resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any further leadership vacuums, ceasefires, or internal power shifts within Iran's governing institutions.
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Volume
$20,980,793End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Reza Pahlavi remains in exile as of mid-2026, with no verified entry into Iran despite ongoing regime instability following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pahlavi has publicly stated readiness to lead a transitional government immediately upon the Islamic Republic's collapse, while noting plans to return as soon as security conditions allow, potentially before full regime change. Recent activities center on European diplomatic outreach, CPAC appearances, and opposition coordination rather than domestic travel. Related prediction markets assign low probabilities to a 2026 return, citing barriers such as limited territorial control by opposition forces, assassination risks, and the need for verifiable public presence to trigger resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any further leadership vacuums, ceasefires, or internal power shifts within Iran's governing institutions.
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,980,793End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Reza Pahlavi remains in exile as of mid-2026, with no verified entry into Iran despite ongoing regime instability following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pahlavi has publicly stated readiness to lead a transitional government immediately upon the Islamic Republic's collapse, while noting plans to return as soon as security conditions allow, potentially before full regime change. Recent activities center on European diplomatic outreach, CPAC appearances, and opposition coordination rather than domestic travel. Related prediction markets assign low probabilities to a 2026 return, citing barriers such as limited territorial control by opposition forces, assassination risks, and the need for verifiable public presence to trigger resolution. Key near-term catalysts include any further leadership vacuums, ceasefires, or internal power shifts within Iran's governing institutions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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