Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will avoid direct military strikes on Iran by June 30, driven by their sustained defensive posture amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that erupted in late February. The E3 nations—France, UK, and Germany—have issued joint statements condemning Iranian missile attacks and drone strikes on regional bases, including European installations in March, but confined responses to diplomatic pressure and coalition efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, with France explicitly declining offensive participation in early April. Absent major escalation, such as direct assaults on their homeland or assets prompting policy reversal, or shifts amid US negotiations nearing a potential truce, their reluctance persists due to domestic political constraints, energy dependencies, and preference for multilateral de-escalation over unilateral airstrikes.