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Finance·Oil

Will gas hit __ by end of May?

icon for Will gas hit __ by end of May?
Finance·Oil

Will gas hit __ by end of May?

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,161 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$131 Vol.

23%

↑ $4.70

$142 Vol.

31%

↑ $4.60

$151 Vol.

33%

↑ $4.50

$6 Vol.

68%

↑ $4.45

$17 Vol.

69%

↑ $4.40

$0 Vol.

87%

↑ $4.35

$546 Vol.

92%

↓ $4.25

$0 Vol.

78%

↓ $4.20

$0 Vol.

84%

↓ $4.10

$40 Vol.

83%

↓ $4.00

$0 Vol.

68%

↓ $3.75

$108 Vol.

18%

↓ $3.50

$20 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. retail gasoline prices have surged to a national average of $4.30 per gallon for regular unleaded as of late April 2026, marking a new yearly high and up over 30% year-over-year, primarily driven by WTI crude oil climbing above $105 per barrel amid heightened Middle East geopolitical risks, including Iran-related tensions. Elevated refinery crack spreads—currently exceeding $30 per barrel—have amplified the crude-to-pump linkage, while inventories remain below five-year averages. EIA's April Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts a full-year average of $3.70/gal, signaling potential Q3 moderation from increased production, but Memorial Day weekend demand ramp-up poses upside risk through May's end. Weekly EIA petroleum status reports and OPEC+ meeting outcomes will be pivotal catalysts shaping trader consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$1,161
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. retail gasoline prices have surged to a national average of $4.30 per gallon for regular unleaded as of late April 2026, marking a new yearly high and up over 30% year-over-year, primarily driven by WTI crude oil climbing above $105 per barrel amid heightened Middle East geopolitical risks, including Iran-related tensions. Elevated refinery crack spreads—currently exceeding $30 per barrel—have amplified the crude-to-pump linkage, while inventories remain below five-year averages. EIA's April Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts a full-year average of $3.70/gal, signaling potential Q3 moderation from increased production, but Memorial Day weekend demand ramp-up poses upside risk through May's end. Weekly EIA petroleum status reports and OPEC+ meeting outcomes will be pivotal catalysts shaping trader consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$1,161
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $4.35" at 92%, followed by "↑ $4.40" at 87%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will gas hit __ by end of May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of May?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit __ by end of May?" is "↑ $4.35" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $4.40" at 87%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.