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Geopolitics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
Geopolitics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

$435,549 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$435,549 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for North Korea

North Korea

$37,306 Vol.

1%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$51,031 Vol.

1%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$48,796 Vol.

1%

icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$70,478 Vol.

2%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$18,677 Vol.

1%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$35,214 Vol.

1%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$8,802 Vol.

1%

icon for Syria

Syria

$14,166 Vol.

2%

icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$87,919 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$2,677 Vol.

2%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$2,011 Vol.

2%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$7,192 Vol.

1%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$19,489 Vol.

1%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$26,405 Vol.

1%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$5,387 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic recognition of Israel remains stable among the 163 UN member states that already extend it, with the 29 holdouts concentrated in the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation plus Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela. No bilateral negotiations or public announcements signal imminent formal ties from any non-recognizing state before the June 30 deadline. Regional security dynamics, including persistent Gaza-related tensions and recent multilateral condemnations of West Bank policies, continue to constrain normalization momentum. Saudi Arabia and several Gulf states maintain indirect security coordination without diplomatic upgrades, while broader Arab League positions tie further steps to Palestinian issues. With only two weeks remaining, the short timeline and absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs limit prospects for new recognitions. Trader consensus reflects these structural and timing barriers.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$435,549
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic recognition of Israel remains stable among the 163 UN member states that already extend it, with the 29 holdouts concentrated in the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation plus Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela. No bilateral negotiations or public announcements signal imminent formal ties from any non-recognizing state before the June 30 deadline. Regional security dynamics, including persistent Gaza-related tensions and recent multilateral condemnations of West Bank policies, continue to constrain normalization momentum. Saudi Arabia and several Gulf states maintain indirect security coordination without diplomatic upgrades, while broader Arab League positions tie further steps to Palestinian issues. With only two weeks remaining, the short timeline and absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs limit prospects for new recognitions. Trader consensus reflects these structural and timing barriers.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$435,549
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lebanon" at 2%, followed by "Syria" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" has generated $435.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is "Lebanon" at just 2%, with "Syria" close behind at 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.