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Politics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

icon for Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Politics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$597,085 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$597,085 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for United States

United States

$9,273 Vol.

16%

icon for Italy

Italy

$14,822 Vol.

22%

icon for The Netherlands

The Netherlands

$31,597 Vol.

12%

icon for Japan

Japan

$39,629 Vol.

21%

icon for Germany

Germany

$65,116 Vol.

6%

icon for Belgium

Belgium

$66,385 Vol.

21%

icon for Finland

Finland

$37,107 Vol.

18%

icon for Austria

Austria

$171,784 Vol.

10%

icon for Greece

Greece

$44,699 Vol.

10%

icon for New Zealand

New Zealand

$116,672 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.A surge in diplomatic recognitions during the September 2025 UN General Assembly propelled the State of Palestine to formal acknowledgment by 157 of 193 UN member states, including first-time moves by France, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, and others amid a French-Saudi hosted summit on two-state solutions. No further recognitions have occurred in 2026 through early May, leaving holdouts such as the United States, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, and several EU nations due to alliance commitments to Israel, historical positions, and domestic political opposition. Trader consensus prices modest probabilities for shifts among mid-tier powers like Italy, Japan, Greece, and New Zealand before the December 31, 2026, deadline, with potential catalysts including elections, regional summits, or Gaza ceasefire talks.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$597,085
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.A surge in diplomatic recognitions during the September 2025 UN General Assembly propelled the State of Palestine to formal acknowledgment by 157 of 193 UN member states, including first-time moves by France, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, and others amid a French-Saudi hosted summit on two-state solutions. No further recognitions have occurred in 2026 through early May, leaving holdouts such as the United States, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, and several EU nations due to alliance commitments to Israel, historical positions, and domestic political opposition. Trader consensus prices modest probabilities for shifts among mid-tier powers like Italy, Japan, Greece, and New Zealand before the December 31, 2026, deadline, with potential catalysts including elections, regional summits, or Gaza ceasefire talks.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$597,085
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Italy" at 22%, followed by "Japan" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" has generated $597.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" is "Italy" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Japan" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.