SpaceX’s June 12 Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, which raised a record $75 billion at a $135 per-share price and $1.75 trillion-plus valuation, has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the year’s largest IPO by market cap. The offering benefited from Starlink’s accelerating revenue, orbital data-center ambitions, and the February all-stock merger that folded xAI’s AI capabilities into the combined entity, creating a scale that dwarfs planned 2026 listings from OpenAI or Anthropic. Those AI labs trail at low single-digit odds due to smaller expected valuations and later timelines, while xAI’s standalone 25.5% probability reflects its pre-merger valuation but confirms it no longer offers an independent path. Execution risks around Musk-controlled entities and potential regulatory scrutiny remain the main variables that could still influence final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceX 88%
Anthropic 10.3%
OpenAI 2.3%
Discord <1%
$2,381,885 Vol.
$2,381,885 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
88%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
2%
Discord
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
SpaceX 88%
Anthropic 10.3%
OpenAI 2.3%
Discord <1%
$2,381,885 Vol.
$2,381,885 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$323,870 Vol.
88%
Anthropic
$409,592 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$385,686 Vol.
2%
Discord
$145,710 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$120,538 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$76,151 Vol.
<1%
Kraken
$426,816 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$99,137 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$78,285 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$86,018 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$87,617 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$142,466 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX’s June 12 Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, which raised a record $75 billion at a $135 per-share price and $1.75 trillion-plus valuation, has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the year’s largest IPO by market cap. The offering benefited from Starlink’s accelerating revenue, orbital data-center ambitions, and the February all-stock merger that folded xAI’s AI capabilities into the combined entity, creating a scale that dwarfs planned 2026 listings from OpenAI or Anthropic. Those AI labs trail at low single-digit odds due to smaller expected valuations and later timelines, while xAI’s standalone 25.5% probability reflects its pre-merger valuation but confirms it no longer offers an independent path. Execution risks around Musk-controlled entities and potential regulatory scrutiny remain the main variables that could still influence final resolution.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,381,885End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX’s June 12 Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, which raised a record $75 billion at a $135 per-share price and $1.75 trillion-plus valuation, has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the year’s largest IPO by market cap. The offering benefited from Starlink’s accelerating revenue, orbital data-center ambitions, and the February all-stock merger that folded xAI’s AI capabilities into the combined entity, creating a scale that dwarfs planned 2026 listings from OpenAI or Anthropic. Those AI labs trail at low single-digit odds due to smaller expected valuations and later timelines, while xAI’s standalone 25.5% probability reflects its pre-merger valuation but confirms it no longer offers an independent path. Execution risks around Musk-controlled entities and potential regulatory scrutiny remain the main variables that could still influence final resolution.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$2,381,885End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s June 12 Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, which raised a record $75 billion at a $135 per-share price and $1.75 trillion-plus valuation, has locked in overwhelming trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the year’s largest IPO by market cap. The offering benefited from Starlink’s accelerating revenue, orbital data-center ambitions, and the February all-stock merger that folded xAI’s AI capabilities into the combined entity, creating a scale that dwarfs planned 2026 listings from OpenAI or Anthropic. Those AI labs trail at low single-digit odds due to smaller expected valuations and later timelines, while xAI’s standalone 25.5% probability reflects its pre-merger valuation but confirms it no longer offers an independent path. Execution risks around Musk-controlled entities and potential regulatory scrutiny remain the main variables that could still influence final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions