SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its April 1 confidential SEC filing and a detailed April 6 banker meeting outlining a blockbuster $75 billion raise targeting $1.75 trillion valuation, incorporating Starlink's explosive satellite internet growth and the earlier 2026 merger with xAI for AI supercomputing muscle like the Colossus cluster. This positions the combined entity as a aerospace-AI powerhouse amid favorable market conditions for mega-IPOs. xAI lingers at 25.5% on residual pre-merger hype, while Anthropic (6.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail without comparable filings, despite recent massive funding rounds; watch late-May prospectus release and June roadshow for final catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceX 88%
Anthropic 6.2%
OpenAI 4.0%
Databricks 1.6%
$1,798,842 Vol.
$1,798,842 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
88%
Anthropic
6%
OpenAI
4%
Databricks
2%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Revolut
1%
Stripe
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
SpaceX 88%
Anthropic 6.2%
OpenAI 4.0%
Databricks 1.6%
$1,798,842 Vol.
$1,798,842 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$218,878 Vol.
88%
Anthropic
$354,122 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$335,053 Vol.
4%
Databricks
$77,275 Vol.
2%
Discord
$76,944 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$381,268 Vol.
1%
Revolut
$43,490 Vol.
1%
Stripe
$44,621 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$53,829 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$59,418 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$61,379 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$92,593 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its April 1 confidential SEC filing and a detailed April 6 banker meeting outlining a blockbuster $75 billion raise targeting $1.75 trillion valuation, incorporating Starlink's explosive satellite internet growth and the earlier 2026 merger with xAI for AI supercomputing muscle like the Colossus cluster. This positions the combined entity as a aerospace-AI powerhouse amid favorable market conditions for mega-IPOs. xAI lingers at 25.5% on residual pre-merger hype, while Anthropic (6.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail without comparable filings, despite recent massive funding rounds; watch late-May prospectus release and June roadshow for final catalysts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,798,842End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its April 1 confidential SEC filing and a detailed April 6 banker meeting outlining a blockbuster $75 billion raise targeting $1.75 trillion valuation, incorporating Starlink's explosive satellite internet growth and the earlier 2026 merger with xAI for AI supercomputing muscle like the Colossus cluster. This positions the combined entity as a aerospace-AI powerhouse amid favorable market conditions for mega-IPOs. xAI lingers at 25.5% on residual pre-merger hype, while Anthropic (6.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail without comparable filings, despite recent massive funding rounds; watch late-May prospectus release and June roadshow for final catalysts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,798,842End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, propelled by its April 1 confidential SEC filing and a detailed April 6 banker meeting outlining a blockbuster $75 billion raise targeting $1.75 trillion valuation, incorporating Starlink's explosive satellite internet growth and the earlier 2026 merger with xAI for AI supercomputing muscle like the Colossus cluster. This positions the combined entity as a aerospace-AI powerhouse amid favorable market conditions for mega-IPOs. xAI lingers at 25.5% on residual pre-merger hype, while Anthropic (6.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail without comparable filings, despite recent massive funding rounds; watch late-May prospectus release and June roadshow for final catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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