Anthropic commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for holding the #1 AI model by April's end, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's release on April 16, which seized the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a dominant 1504 Elo score in the Text Arena Overall rankings (style control off). This frontier large language model excels in coding (82% on SWE-bench Verified), math, and agentic tasks, widening its lead over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro amid no credible leaks of competing launches. The skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds underscores sustained superiority, though a surprise last-minute model drop from OpenAI or xAI before the April 30 noon ET snapshot could theoretically challenge resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
Moonshot <1%
Amazon <1%
Mistral <1%
$2,039,560 Vol.
$2,039,560 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
100%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Meta
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
xAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Anthropic 100.0%
Moonshot <1%
Amazon <1%
Mistral <1%
$2,039,560 Vol.
$2,039,560 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$173,587 Vol.
100%
Moonshot
$140,153 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$80,848 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$118,134 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$34,730 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$45,324 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$86,407 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$61,138 Vol.
<1%
$243,534 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$90,867 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$129,060 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$39,510 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$243,263 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$230,546 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$322,734 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for holding the #1 AI model by April's end, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's release on April 16, which seized the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a dominant 1504 Elo score in the Text Arena Overall rankings (style control off). This frontier large language model excels in coding (82% on SWE-bench Verified), math, and agentic tasks, widening its lead over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro amid no credible leaks of competing launches. The skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds underscores sustained superiority, though a surprise last-minute model drop from OpenAI or xAI before the April 30 noon ET snapshot could theoretically challenge resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$2,039,560End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for holding the #1 AI model by April's end, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's release on April 16, which seized the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a dominant 1504 Elo score in the Text Arena Overall rankings (style control off). This frontier large language model excels in coding (82% on SWE-bench Verified), math, and agentic tasks, widening its lead over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro amid no credible leaks of competing launches. The skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds underscores sustained superiority, though a surprise last-minute model drop from OpenAI or xAI before the April 30 noon ET snapshot could theoretically challenge resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,039,560End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for holding the #1 AI model by April's end, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's release on April 16, which seized the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a dominant 1504 Elo score in the Text Arena Overall rankings (style control off). This frontier large language model excels in coding (82% on SWE-bench Verified), math, and agentic tasks, widening its lead over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro amid no credible leaks of competing launches. The skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds underscores sustained superiority, though a surprise last-minute model drop from OpenAI or xAI before the April 30 noon ET snapshot could theoretically challenge resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions