Following the April 11-12 Islamabad talks—the highest-level direct US-Iran meeting since 1979—negotiations stalled without agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment, despite yielding a temporary ceasefire extension. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed excessive US demands after meeting Putin on April 27, while President Trump canceled a second-round trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner over internal Iranian divisions. Tehran recently floated a new proposal separating war-ending terms from nuclear talks, now under White House review via Pakistani channels. No date is set for resumption amid fragile truce, with traders eyeing diplomatic breakthroughs before June deadlines amid historical patterns of protracted bilateral standoffs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
$29,659,098 Vol.
May 15, 2026
April 30
<1%
May 5
5%
May 15
23%
May 31
40%
June 30
65%
$29,659,098 Vol.
April 30
$5,929,099 Vol.
<1%
May 5
$1,539,514 Vol.
5%
May 15
$1,386,795 Vol.
23%
May 31
$111,060 Vol.
40%
June 30
$173,574 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Following the April 11-12 Islamabad talks—the highest-level direct US-Iran meeting since 1979—negotiations stalled without agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment, despite yielding a temporary ceasefire extension. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed excessive US demands after meeting Putin on April 27, while President Trump canceled a second-round trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner over internal Iranian divisions. Tehran recently floated a new proposal separating war-ending terms from nuclear talks, now under White House review via Pakistani channels. No date is set for resumption amid fragile truce, with traders eyeing diplomatic breakthroughs before June deadlines amid historical patterns of protracted bilateral standoffs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,659,098End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Following the April 11-12 Islamabad talks—the highest-level direct US-Iran meeting since 1979—negotiations stalled without agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment, despite yielding a temporary ceasefire extension. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed excessive US demands after meeting Putin on April 27, while President Trump canceled a second-round trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner over internal Iranian divisions. Tehran recently floated a new proposal separating war-ending terms from nuclear talks, now under White House review via Pakistani channels. No date is set for resumption amid fragile truce, with traders eyeing diplomatic breakthroughs before June deadlines amid historical patterns of protracted bilateral standoffs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$29,659,098End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the April 11-12 Islamabad talks—the highest-level direct US-Iran meeting since 1979—negotiations stalled without agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment, despite yielding a temporary ceasefire extension. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed excessive US demands after meeting Putin on April 27, while President Trump canceled a second-round trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner over internal Iranian divisions. Tehran recently floated a new proposal separating war-ending terms from nuclear talks, now under White House review via Pakistani channels. No date is set for resumption amid fragile truce, with traders eyeing diplomatic breakthroughs before June deadlines amid historical patterns of protracted bilateral standoffs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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