Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between an 800–900B US goods and services trade deficit (51.5%) and 900B–1T (50.0%) for full-year 2026, reflecting early-year narrowing offset by emerging rebound risks. January–February data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the deficit plunging 54.8% year-over-year to under $112B cumulatively, fueled by tariff-driven import declines and record exports of industrial supplies like natural gas, alongside reciprocal trade frameworks with partners including India. However, the Census Bureau's advance March goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9B on surging imports, signaling potential consumer spending resilience amid tariff turmoil with Canada and Mexico. Sustained policy enforcement could compress imports further into lower bins, while retaliation or robust GDP growth—due in upcoming Q1 reports—might push toward 1T, keeping the contest tight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,967 Vol.
$19,967 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
20%
500–600B
7%
600–700B
11%
700–800B
18%
800–900B
38%
900B–1T
27%
1T–1.1T
12%
1.1T+
6%
$19,967 Vol.
$19,967 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,528 Vol.
20%
500–600B
$288 Vol.
7%
600–700B
$315 Vol.
11%
700–800B
$343 Vol.
18%
800–900B
$838 Vol.
38%
900B–1T
$818 Vol.
27%
1T–1.1T
$328 Vol.
12%
1.1T+
$509 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between an 800–900B US goods and services trade deficit (51.5%) and 900B–1T (50.0%) for full-year 2026, reflecting early-year narrowing offset by emerging rebound risks. January–February data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the deficit plunging 54.8% year-over-year to under $112B cumulatively, fueled by tariff-driven import declines and record exports of industrial supplies like natural gas, alongside reciprocal trade frameworks with partners including India. However, the Census Bureau's advance March goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9B on surging imports, signaling potential consumer spending resilience amid tariff turmoil with Canada and Mexico. Sustained policy enforcement could compress imports further into lower bins, while retaliation or robust GDP growth—due in upcoming Q1 reports—might push toward 1T, keeping the contest tight.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$19,967End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between an 800–900B US goods and services trade deficit (51.5%) and 900B–1T (50.0%) for full-year 2026, reflecting early-year narrowing offset by emerging rebound risks. January–February data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the deficit plunging 54.8% year-over-year to under $112B cumulatively, fueled by tariff-driven import declines and record exports of industrial supplies like natural gas, alongside reciprocal trade frameworks with partners including India. However, the Census Bureau's advance March goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9B on surging imports, signaling potential consumer spending resilience amid tariff turmoil with Canada and Mexico. Sustained policy enforcement could compress imports further into lower bins, while retaliation or robust GDP growth—due in upcoming Q1 reports—might push toward 1T, keeping the contest tight.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$19,967End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between an 800–900B US goods and services trade deficit (51.5%) and 900B–1T (50.0%) for full-year 2026, reflecting early-year narrowing offset by emerging rebound risks. January–February data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the deficit plunging 54.8% year-over-year to under $112B cumulatively, fueled by tariff-driven import declines and record exports of industrial supplies like natural gas, alongside reciprocal trade frameworks with partners including India. However, the Census Bureau's advance March goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9B on surging imports, signaling potential consumer spending resilience amid tariff turmoil with Canada and Mexico. Sustained policy enforcement could compress imports further into lower bins, while retaliation or robust GDP growth—due in upcoming Q1 reports—might push toward 1T, keeping the contest tight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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