Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% annualized, alongside broad economist consensus projecting full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8–2.5%, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability against contraction. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts boosting consumption and investment, plus AI-related capital spending and post-shutdown rebound effects, have sustained momentum despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices linked to Middle East developments. Labor market resilience and moderate inflation further anchor positive growth expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the Q2 GDP release and any shifts in Fed policy or trade dynamics that could influence the second-half trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$27,733 Vol.
$27,733 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
$27,733 Vol.
$27,733 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% annualized, alongside broad economist consensus projecting full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8–2.5%, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability against contraction. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts boosting consumption and investment, plus AI-related capital spending and post-shutdown rebound effects, have sustained momentum despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices linked to Middle East developments. Labor market resilience and moderate inflation further anchor positive growth expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the Q2 GDP release and any shifts in Fed policy or trade dynamics that could influence the second-half trajectory.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,733End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% annualized, alongside broad economist consensus projecting full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8–2.5%, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability against contraction. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts boosting consumption and investment, plus AI-related capital spending and post-shutdown rebound effects, have sustained momentum despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices linked to Middle East developments. Labor market resilience and moderate inflation further anchor positive growth expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the Q2 GDP release and any shifts in Fed policy or trade dynamics that could influence the second-half trajectory.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,733End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% annualized, alongside broad economist consensus projecting full-year real GDP expansion of 1.8–2.5%, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability against contraction. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts boosting consumption and investment, plus AI-related capital spending and post-shutdown rebound effects, have sustained momentum despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices linked to Middle East developments. Labor market resilience and moderate inflation further anchor positive growth expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the Q2 GDP release and any shifts in Fed policy or trade dynamics that could influence the second-half trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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