Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 1.6% annualized, following a 0.5% Q4 2025 reading, combined with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed survey, and private economists projecting 2.0–2.5% full-year growth, underpins the 84.5% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. Trader consensus reflects fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumption and investment, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and resilient labor market data through May. Offsetting pressures from elevated tariffs and energy-driven inflation have not derailed momentum, keeping recession probabilities low. Key near-term catalysts include the Q2 GDP release and any shifts in FOMC policy or trade developments that could alter the growth trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$27,733 Vol.
$27,733 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
$27,733 Vol.
$27,733 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 1.6% annualized, following a 0.5% Q4 2025 reading, combined with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed survey, and private economists projecting 2.0–2.5% full-year growth, underpins the 84.5% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. Trader consensus reflects fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumption and investment, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and resilient labor market data through May. Offsetting pressures from elevated tariffs and energy-driven inflation have not derailed momentum, keeping recession probabilities low. Key near-term catalysts include the Q2 GDP release and any shifts in FOMC policy or trade developments that could alter the growth trajectory.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,733End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 1.6% annualized, following a 0.5% Q4 2025 reading, combined with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed survey, and private economists projecting 2.0–2.5% full-year growth, underpins the 84.5% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. Trader consensus reflects fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumption and investment, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and resilient labor market data through May. Offsetting pressures from elevated tariffs and energy-driven inflation have not derailed momentum, keeping recession probabilities low. Key near-term catalysts include the Q2 GDP release and any shifts in FOMC policy or trade developments that could alter the growth trajectory.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,733End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 1.6% annualized, following a 0.5% Q4 2025 reading, combined with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed survey, and private economists projecting 2.0–2.5% full-year growth, underpins the 84.5% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. Trader consensus reflects fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumption and investment, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and resilient labor market data through May. Offsetting pressures from elevated tariffs and energy-driven inflation have not derailed momentum, keeping recession probabilities low. Key near-term catalysts include the Q2 GDP release and any shifts in FOMC policy or trade developments that could alter the growth trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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