The Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate revealed U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% and fueled by robust AI-related investment and consumer spending resilience. This primary catalyst underpins Polymarket traders' 91.1% implied probability for positive annual GDP growth in 2026, aligning with CBO's February projection of 2.2% full-year expansion amid stable unemployment near 4% and moderating core PCE inflation. Consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital incentivizes accurate pricing. Realistic challenges include tariff escalations eroding trade, persistent inflation forcing Fed funds rate hikes above current 4.75–5.00%, or geopolitical shocks curbing risk appetite, though Q2 data and May FOMC proceedings loom as key tests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$25,391 Vol.
$25,391 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
$25,391 Vol.
$25,391 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.The Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate revealed U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% and fueled by robust AI-related investment and consumer spending resilience. This primary catalyst underpins Polymarket traders' 91.1% implied probability for positive annual GDP growth in 2026, aligning with CBO's February projection of 2.2% full-year expansion amid stable unemployment near 4% and moderating core PCE inflation. Consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital incentivizes accurate pricing. Realistic challenges include tariff escalations eroding trade, persistent inflation forcing Fed funds rate hikes above current 4.75–5.00%, or geopolitical shocks curbing risk appetite, though Q2 data and May FOMC proceedings loom as key tests.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$25,391End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.The Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate revealed U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% and fueled by robust AI-related investment and consumer spending resilience. This primary catalyst underpins Polymarket traders' 91.1% implied probability for positive annual GDP growth in 2026, aligning with CBO's February projection of 2.2% full-year expansion amid stable unemployment near 4% and moderating core PCE inflation. Consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital incentivizes accurate pricing. Realistic challenges include tariff escalations eroding trade, persistent inflation forcing Fed funds rate hikes above current 4.75–5.00%, or geopolitical shocks curbing risk appetite, though Q2 data and May FOMC proceedings loom as key tests.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$26,188End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate revealed U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% and fueled by robust AI-related investment and consumer spending resilience. This primary catalyst underpins Polymarket traders' 91.1% implied probability for positive annual GDP growth in 2026, aligning with CBO's February projection of 2.2% full-year expansion amid stable unemployment near 4% and moderating core PCE inflation. Consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital incentivizes accurate pricing. Realistic challenges include tariff escalations eroding trade, persistent inflation forcing Fed funds rate hikes above current 4.75–5.00%, or geopolitical shocks curbing risk appetite, though Q2 data and May FOMC proceedings loom as key tests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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