Despite an ordered departure for non-emergency U.S. government personnel and family members from the U.S. Embassy in Beirut since February 23, 2026, amid escalating regional tensions including airstrikes and drone activity, traders show 99.1% confidence against a full embassy evacuation by April 30. Recent State Department security alerts, including April 22's Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory, reiterate urges for U.S. citizens to depart Lebanon via commercial flights while maintaining core embassy operations with restricted consular services. No announcements or actions indicate full pullout, reflecting diplomatic continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden escalation like a direct threat or attack prompting immediate State Department action before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
$23,916 Vol.
$23,916 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$23,916 Vol.
$23,916 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Despite an ordered departure for non-emergency U.S. government personnel and family members from the U.S. Embassy in Beirut since February 23, 2026, amid escalating regional tensions including airstrikes and drone activity, traders show 99.1% confidence against a full embassy evacuation by April 30. Recent State Department security alerts, including April 22's Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory, reiterate urges for U.S. citizens to depart Lebanon via commercial flights while maintaining core embassy operations with restricted consular services. No announcements or actions indicate full pullout, reflecting diplomatic continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden escalation like a direct threat or attack prompting immediate State Department action before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$23,916End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Despite an ordered departure for non-emergency U.S. government personnel and family members from the U.S. Embassy in Beirut since February 23, 2026, amid escalating regional tensions including airstrikes and drone activity, traders show 99.1% confidence against a full embassy evacuation by April 30. Recent State Department security alerts, including April 22's Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory, reiterate urges for U.S. citizens to depart Lebanon via commercial flights while maintaining core embassy operations with restricted consular services. No announcements or actions indicate full pullout, reflecting diplomatic continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden escalation like a direct threat or attack prompting immediate State Department action before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$23,916End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite an ordered departure for non-emergency U.S. government personnel and family members from the U.S. Embassy in Beirut since February 23, 2026, amid escalating regional tensions including airstrikes and drone activity, traders show 99.1% confidence against a full embassy evacuation by April 30. Recent State Department security alerts, including April 22's Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory, reiterate urges for U.S. citizens to depart Lebanon via commercial flights while maintaining core embassy operations with restricted consular services. No announcements or actions indicate full pullout, reflecting diplomatic continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden escalation like a direct threat or attack prompting immediate State Department action before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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