Trader consensus prices 8–9 ships at 81.8% implied probability for Iran successfully targeting commercial vessels by April 30, reflecting verified IRGC Navy actions totaling eight kinetic strikes or seizures since late March, primarily in the Strait of Hormuz. The April 22 seizures of the Epaminondas and MSC Francesca cargo ships marked the most recent confirmed incidents, pushing the count amid U.S. naval blockade enforcement. No new attacks have occurred in the past week due to ceasefire extensions, heightened U.S. carrier strike group presence deterring transits, and reduced commercial shipping traffic. Iranian threats of retaliation persist, but de-escalation signals and the impending resolution deadline cap 10+ odds at 10.1%, barring late-breaking strikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
$253,681 Vol.
$253,681 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
8–9
93%
10+
5%
$253,681 Vol.
$253,681 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
8–9
$34,878 Vol.
93%
10+
$52,953 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 8–9 ships at 81.8% implied probability for Iran successfully targeting commercial vessels by April 30, reflecting verified IRGC Navy actions totaling eight kinetic strikes or seizures since late March, primarily in the Strait of Hormuz. The April 22 seizures of the Epaminondas and MSC Francesca cargo ships marked the most recent confirmed incidents, pushing the count amid U.S. naval blockade enforcement. No new attacks have occurred in the past week due to ceasefire extensions, heightened U.S. carrier strike group presence deterring transits, and reduced commercial shipping traffic. Iranian threats of retaliation persist, but de-escalation signals and the impending resolution deadline cap 10+ odds at 10.1%, barring late-breaking strikes.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$253,681End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 8–9 ships at 81.8% implied probability for Iran successfully targeting commercial vessels by April 30, reflecting verified IRGC Navy actions totaling eight kinetic strikes or seizures since late March, primarily in the Strait of Hormuz. The April 22 seizures of the Epaminondas and MSC Francesca cargo ships marked the most recent confirmed incidents, pushing the count amid U.S. naval blockade enforcement. No new attacks have occurred in the past week due to ceasefire extensions, heightened U.S. carrier strike group presence deterring transits, and reduced commercial shipping traffic. Iranian threats of retaliation persist, but de-escalation signals and the impending resolution deadline cap 10+ odds at 10.1%, barring late-breaking strikes.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$253,681End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices 8–9 ships at 81.8% implied probability for Iran successfully targeting commercial vessels by April 30, reflecting verified IRGC Navy actions totaling eight kinetic strikes or seizures since late March, primarily in the Strait of Hormuz. The April 22 seizures of the Epaminondas and MSC Francesca cargo ships marked the most recent confirmed incidents, pushing the count amid U.S. naval blockade enforcement. No new attacks have occurred in the past week due to ceasefire extensions, heightened U.S. carrier strike group presence deterring transits, and reduced commercial shipping traffic. Iranian threats of retaliation persist, but de-escalation signals and the impending resolution deadline cap 10+ odds at 10.1%, barring late-breaking strikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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