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icon for Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?
Finance·KPIs

Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?

icon for Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?
Finance·KPIs

Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?

$14,676 Vol.

May 6, 2026
Polymarket

$14,676 Vol.

Polymarket

3.2B

$1,701 Vol.

98%

3.4B

$2,403 Vol.

98%

3.6B

$1,434 Vol.

62%

3.8B

$5,362 Vol.

10%

4B

$443 Vol.

2%

4.2B

$164 Vol.

1%

4.4B

$146 Vol.

1%

4.6B

$439 Vol.

2%

4.8B

$1,035 Vol.

<1%

5B

$1,547 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Uber’s total number of trips for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Uber’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company’s earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Uber's Q1 2026 trips around 3.6 billion, reflecting robust platform momentum from Q4 2025's record 3.8 billion trips—up 22% year-over-year with over 40 million daily—despite cheaper ride pricing that boosted volume but pressured margins, prompting conservative adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.37-2.47 billion. Gross bookings outlook of $52.0-53.5 billion signals 17-21% constant-currency growth, underpinned by 18% monthly active consumer expansion and mobility segment strength, though year-to-date stock pressure highlights profitability scrutiny. Q1 earnings on May 6 will reveal the official trips figure, resolving markets amid watch for trip-per-user trends and autonomous vehicle partnership updates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Uber’s total number of trips for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market is Uber’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company’s earnings webcast may also be used.

Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Volume
$14,676
End Date
May 6, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Uber’s total number of trips for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Uber’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company’s earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Uber’s total number of trips for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Uber’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company’s earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Uber's Q1 2026 trips around 3.6 billion, reflecting robust platform momentum from Q4 2025's record 3.8 billion trips—up 22% year-over-year with over 40 million daily—despite cheaper ride pricing that boosted volume but pressured margins, prompting conservative adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.37-2.47 billion. Gross bookings outlook of $52.0-53.5 billion signals 17-21% constant-currency growth, underpinned by 18% monthly active consumer expansion and mobility segment strength, though year-to-date stock pressure highlights profitability scrutiny. Q1 earnings on May 6 will reveal the official trips figure, resolving markets amid watch for trip-per-user trends and autonomous vehicle partnership updates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Uber’s total number of trips for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market is Uber’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company’s earnings webcast may also be used.

Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Volume
$14,676
End Date
May 6, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Uber’s total number of trips for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Uber’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company’s earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.2B" at 98%, followed by "3.4B" at 98%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?" has generated $14.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?" is "3.2B" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.4B" at 98%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.