Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability that Uber (UBER) will not beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $0.71 adjusted EPS and $13.3 billion revenue, driven by the company's own guidance of $0.65–$0.72 EPS—whose midpoint falls short—and persistent margin compression from promotional ride pricing that boosted Q4 2025 trips 22% year-over-year but led to an EPS miss ($0.71 versus $0.79 expected). Recent Q4 results highlighted strong gross bookings growth amid competitive pressures, yet analyst revisions remain cautious, with UBER shares trading around $76 amid broader ride-hailing sector dynamics. Key catalyst: Q1 results and conference call on May 6, where guidance updates on autonomous vehicle partnerships, like the April 30 Hertz deal, could sway sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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May 6, 2026
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May 6, 2026
As of market creation, Uber is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Uber's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.71 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Uber reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.71 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Uber releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability that Uber (UBER) will not beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $0.71 adjusted EPS and $13.3 billion revenue, driven by the company's own guidance of $0.65–$0.72 EPS—whose midpoint falls short—and persistent margin compression from promotional ride pricing that boosted Q4 2025 trips 22% year-over-year but led to an EPS miss ($0.71 versus $0.79 expected). Recent Q4 results highlighted strong gross bookings growth amid competitive pressures, yet analyst revisions remain cautious, with UBER shares trading around $76 amid broader ride-hailing sector dynamics. Key catalyst: Q1 results and conference call on May 6, where guidance updates on autonomous vehicle partnerships, like the April 30 Hertz deal, could sway sentiment.
As of market creation, Uber is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Uber's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.71 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Uber reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.71 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Uber releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Uber releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$7,074End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Uber is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Uber's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.71 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Uber reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.71 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Uber releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability that Uber (UBER) will not beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $0.71 adjusted EPS and $13.3 billion revenue, driven by the company's own guidance of $0.65–$0.72 EPS—whose midpoint falls short—and persistent margin compression from promotional ride pricing that boosted Q4 2025 trips 22% year-over-year but led to an EPS miss ($0.71 versus $0.79 expected). Recent Q4 results highlighted strong gross bookings growth amid competitive pressures, yet analyst revisions remain cautious, with UBER shares trading around $76 amid broader ride-hailing sector dynamics. Key catalyst: Q1 results and conference call on May 6, where guidance updates on autonomous vehicle partnerships, like the April 30 Hertz deal, could sway sentiment.
As of market creation, Uber is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Uber's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.71 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Uber reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.71 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Uber releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Uber releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$7,074End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability that Uber (UBER) will not beat Q1 2026 earnings consensus of $0.71 adjusted EPS and $13.3 billion revenue, driven by the company's own guidance of $0.65–$0.72 EPS—whose midpoint falls short—and persistent margin compression from promotional ride pricing that boosted Q4 2025 trips 22% year-over-year but led to an EPS miss ($0.71 versus $0.79 expected). Recent Q4 results highlighted strong gross bookings growth amid competitive pressures, yet analyst revisions remain cautious, with UBER shares trading around $76 amid broader ride-hailing sector dynamics. Key catalyst: Q1 results and conference call on May 6, where guidance updates on autonomous vehicle partnerships, like the April 30 Hertz deal, could sway sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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