Trader consensus prices "No" at 51.5% for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, capturing uncertainty over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AKP advancing reforms to extend term limits before the 2028 presidential election. Early 2026 momentum—Erdoğan's declaration of a "year of reforms," AKP parliamentary seat gains, a February reform roadmap, new charter draft submission to Erdoğan, and the deputy speaker's prediction of legislative enablement for another term—narrowed the gap from prior highs. Yet progress stalled post-March amid the AKP-MHP coalition's shortfall of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum, compounded by opposition resistance, economic pressures, and debate on power transition. Bill submission could tip toward Yes; pivot to early elections or abandonment favors No.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 51.5% for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, capturing uncertainty over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AKP advancing reforms to extend term limits before the 2028 presidential election. Early 2026 momentum—Erdoğan's declaration of a "year of reforms," AKP parliamentary seat gains, a February reform roadmap, new charter draft submission to Erdoğan, and the deputy speaker's prediction of legislative enablement for another term—narrowed the gap from prior highs. Yet progress stalled post-March amid the AKP-MHP coalition's shortfall of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum, compounded by opposition resistance, economic pressures, and debate on power transition. Bill submission could tip toward Yes; pivot to early elections or abandonment favors No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$400End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 51.5% for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, capturing uncertainty over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AKP advancing reforms to extend term limits before the 2028 presidential election. Early 2026 momentum—Erdoğan's declaration of a "year of reforms," AKP parliamentary seat gains, a February reform roadmap, new charter draft submission to Erdoğan, and the deputy speaker's prediction of legislative enablement for another term—narrowed the gap from prior highs. Yet progress stalled post-March amid the AKP-MHP coalition's shortfall of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum, compounded by opposition resistance, economic pressures, and debate on power transition. Bill submission could tip toward Yes; pivot to early elections or abandonment favors No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$400End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 51.5% for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, capturing uncertainty over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AKP advancing reforms to extend term limits before the 2028 presidential election. Early 2026 momentum—Erdoğan's declaration of a "year of reforms," AKP parliamentary seat gains, a February reform roadmap, new charter draft submission to Erdoğan, and the deputy speaker's prediction of legislative enablement for another term—narrowed the gap from prior highs. Yet progress stalled post-March amid the AKP-MHP coalition's shortfall of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum, compounded by opposition resistance, economic pressures, and debate on power transition. Bill submission could tip toward Yes; pivot to early elections or abandonment favors No.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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