Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick have resigned from the House since mid-April amid bipartisan ethics probes into misconduct allegations, preempting expulsion votes and leaving Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) as the last facing scrutiny. Traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, driven by Mills' public defiance—he denies sexual misconduct, stolen valor, and profiteering claims—and the constitutional 2/3 House vote threshold for expulsion, unlikely under slim GOP control despite Rep. Nancy Mace's April 20 resolution (H.Res.1193) and recent document submissions amplifying allegations. House Ethics Committee investigation persists without a floor vote scheduled, and no resignation signals emerged in the past week, anchoring trader consensus against all four departing by May 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$27,188 Vol.
$27,188 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$27,188 Vol.
$27,188 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick have resigned from the House since mid-April amid bipartisan ethics probes into misconduct allegations, preempting expulsion votes and leaving Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) as the last facing scrutiny. Traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, driven by Mills' public defiance—he denies sexual misconduct, stolen valor, and profiteering claims—and the constitutional 2/3 House vote threshold for expulsion, unlikely under slim GOP control despite Rep. Nancy Mace's April 20 resolution (H.Res.1193) and recent document submissions amplifying allegations. House Ethics Committee investigation persists without a floor vote scheduled, and no resignation signals emerged in the past week, anchoring trader consensus against all four departing by May 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$27,188End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick have resigned from the House since mid-April amid bipartisan ethics probes into misconduct allegations, preempting expulsion votes and leaving Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) as the last facing scrutiny. Traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, driven by Mills' public defiance—he denies sexual misconduct, stolen valor, and profiteering claims—and the constitutional 2/3 House vote threshold for expulsion, unlikely under slim GOP control despite Rep. Nancy Mace's April 20 resolution (H.Res.1193) and recent document submissions amplifying allegations. House Ethics Committee investigation persists without a floor vote scheduled, and no resignation signals emerged in the past week, anchoring trader consensus against all four departing by May 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,074End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick have resigned from the House since mid-April amid bipartisan ethics probes into misconduct allegations, preempting expulsion votes and leaving Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) as the last facing scrutiny. Traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, driven by Mills' public defiance—he denies sexual misconduct, stolen valor, and profiteering claims—and the constitutional 2/3 House vote threshold for expulsion, unlikely under slim GOP control despite Rep. Nancy Mace's April 20 resolution (H.Res.1193) and recent document submissions amplifying allegations. House Ethics Committee investigation persists without a floor vote scheduled, and no resignation signals emerged in the past week, anchoring trader consensus against all four departing by May 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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