Trader consensus prices a low 3% chance of Claudia Sheinbaum ceasing to serve as Mexico's president by June 30, 2026, and 11% by year-end, reflecting her strong approval ratings above 60% and constitutional six-year term until 2030 with no active impeachment proceedings. The dominant recent driver is the April 29 U.S. Department of Justice indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya—a Morena ally close to Sheinbaum—plus nine officials for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel, prompting Trump administration extradition demands and opposition #DemandoTuRenunciaClaudia calls over perceived narco ties. Sheinbaum demands irrefutable proof while defending sovereignty, amid prior strains like a March electoral reform defeat by coalition partners and Chihuahua prosecutor's resignation post-U.S. anti-drug operation. Upcoming bilateral talks and Rocha's potential ouster could test her authority, though historical precedent favors term completion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$185,441 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
3%
December 31, 2026
11%
$185,441 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$138,223 Vol.
3%
December 31, 2026
$3,571 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a low 3% chance of Claudia Sheinbaum ceasing to serve as Mexico's president by June 30, 2026, and 11% by year-end, reflecting her strong approval ratings above 60% and constitutional six-year term until 2030 with no active impeachment proceedings. The dominant recent driver is the April 29 U.S. Department of Justice indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya—a Morena ally close to Sheinbaum—plus nine officials for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel, prompting Trump administration extradition demands and opposition #DemandoTuRenunciaClaudia calls over perceived narco ties. Sheinbaum demands irrefutable proof while defending sovereignty, amid prior strains like a March electoral reform defeat by coalition partners and Chihuahua prosecutor's resignation post-U.S. anti-drug operation. Upcoming bilateral talks and Rocha's potential ouster could test her authority, though historical precedent favors term completion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 27, 2025, 7:19 PM ET
Volume
$185,441End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 27, 2025, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a low 3% chance of Claudia Sheinbaum ceasing to serve as Mexico's president by June 30, 2026, and 11% by year-end, reflecting her strong approval ratings above 60% and constitutional six-year term until 2030 with no active impeachment proceedings. The dominant recent driver is the April 29 U.S. Department of Justice indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya—a Morena ally close to Sheinbaum—plus nine officials for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel, prompting Trump administration extradition demands and opposition #DemandoTuRenunciaClaudia calls over perceived narco ties. Sheinbaum demands irrefutable proof while defending sovereignty, amid prior strains like a March electoral reform defeat by coalition partners and Chihuahua prosecutor's resignation post-U.S. anti-drug operation. Upcoming bilateral talks and Rocha's potential ouster could test her authority, though historical precedent favors term completion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$185,441End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 27, 2025, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a low 3% chance of Claudia Sheinbaum ceasing to serve as Mexico's president by June 30, 2026, and 11% by year-end, reflecting her strong approval ratings above 60% and constitutional six-year term until 2030 with no active impeachment proceedings. The dominant recent driver is the April 29 U.S. Department of Justice indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya—a Morena ally close to Sheinbaum—plus nine officials for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel, prompting Trump administration extradition demands and opposition #DemandoTuRenunciaClaudia calls over perceived narco ties. Sheinbaum demands irrefutable proof while defending sovereignty, amid prior strains like a March electoral reform defeat by coalition partners and Chihuahua prosecutor's resignation post-U.S. anti-drug operation. Upcoming bilateral talks and Rocha's potential ouster could test her authority, though historical precedent favors term completion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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