Putin’s entrenched control over Russia’s political institutions and security apparatus underpins the near-certain trader consensus that he will remain president through June 30. Constitutional term limits reset by prior amendments allow him to serve until at least 2030 without interruption, while recent public statements and appearances confirm continuity in leadership amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. No scheduled elections, votes of no confidence, or institutional mechanisms exist in the narrow two-week window that could force removal. Although military setbacks, elite balancing, and the president’s age introduce long-term uncertainty, verifiable developments through mid-June show no acute triggers such as sudden incapacitation or elite revolt capable of altering the outcome before the deadline.