Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism toward OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus initial public offering before 2027, with "No" commanding a 75.5% implied probability amid the absence of any S-1 filing or official IPO announcement. Recent catalysts include a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—still shy of $1 trillion—followed by investor scrutiny in mid-April over missed user growth and revenue targets, plus reported internal rifts between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar on aggressive timelines and massive compute spending projections exceeding $600 billion by 2030. Weak secondary market liquidity, with unsold shares despite high private valuations, underscores profitability concerns in a competitive artificial intelligence landscape. Key upcoming events include potential regulatory filings in the second half of 2026, though leadership alignment and macroeconomic conditions remain pivotal swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$265,047 Vol.
$265,047 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$265,047 Vol.
$265,047 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism toward OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus initial public offering before 2027, with "No" commanding a 75.5% implied probability amid the absence of any S-1 filing or official IPO announcement. Recent catalysts include a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—still shy of $1 trillion—followed by investor scrutiny in mid-April over missed user growth and revenue targets, plus reported internal rifts between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar on aggressive timelines and massive compute spending projections exceeding $600 billion by 2030. Weak secondary market liquidity, with unsold shares despite high private valuations, underscores profitability concerns in a competitive artificial intelligence landscape. Key upcoming events include potential regulatory filings in the second half of 2026, though leadership alignment and macroeconomic conditions remain pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Market Opened: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$265,047End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism toward OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus initial public offering before 2027, with "No" commanding a 75.5% implied probability amid the absence of any S-1 filing or official IPO announcement. Recent catalysts include a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—still shy of $1 trillion—followed by investor scrutiny in mid-April over missed user growth and revenue targets, plus reported internal rifts between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar on aggressive timelines and massive compute spending projections exceeding $600 billion by 2030. Weak secondary market liquidity, with unsold shares despite high private valuations, underscores profitability concerns in a competitive artificial intelligence landscape. Key upcoming events include potential regulatory filings in the second half of 2026, though leadership alignment and macroeconomic conditions remain pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$265,047End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism toward OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus initial public offering before 2027, with "No" commanding a 75.5% implied probability amid the absence of any S-1 filing or official IPO announcement. Recent catalysts include a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—still shy of $1 trillion—followed by investor scrutiny in mid-April over missed user growth and revenue targets, plus reported internal rifts between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar on aggressive timelines and massive compute spending projections exceeding $600 billion by 2030. Weak secondary market liquidity, with unsold shares despite high private valuations, underscores profitability concerns in a competitive artificial intelligence landscape. Key upcoming events include potential regulatory filings in the second half of 2026, though leadership alignment and macroeconomic conditions remain pivotal swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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