SpaceX's confidential SEC filing earlier this month, targeting a June 2026 IPO at a potential $1.75–2 trillion valuation, has driven trader consensus to a 96.5% implied probability that it will go public before OpenAI, reflecting the aerospace giant's advanced regulatory progress amid Starlink revenue growth and ambitious AI-multiplanetary expansions. OpenAI, meanwhile, remains in early groundwork for a possible Q4 2026 listing but faces internal tensions, with CEO Sam Altman pushing aggressively despite CFO concerns over massive compute spending and revenue shortfalls. Realistic wildcards include SpaceX delays from SEC review, market volatility, or technical hurdles in Starlink scaling, though OpenAI acceleration seems unlikely without a surprise filing. Traders eye SpaceX's upcoming roadshow as the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceX
$72,496 Vol.
$72,496 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
SpaceX
$72,496 Vol.
$72,496 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential SEC filing earlier this month, targeting a June 2026 IPO at a potential $1.75–2 trillion valuation, has driven trader consensus to a 96.5% implied probability that it will go public before OpenAI, reflecting the aerospace giant's advanced regulatory progress amid Starlink revenue growth and ambitious AI-multiplanetary expansions. OpenAI, meanwhile, remains in early groundwork for a possible Q4 2026 listing but faces internal tensions, with CEO Sam Altman pushing aggressively despite CFO concerns over massive compute spending and revenue shortfalls. Realistic wildcards include SpaceX delays from SEC review, market volatility, or technical hurdles in Starlink scaling, though OpenAI acceleration seems unlikely without a surprise filing. Traders eye SpaceX's upcoming roadshow as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$72,496End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential SEC filing earlier this month, targeting a June 2026 IPO at a potential $1.75–2 trillion valuation, has driven trader consensus to a 96.5% implied probability that it will go public before OpenAI, reflecting the aerospace giant's advanced regulatory progress amid Starlink revenue growth and ambitious AI-multiplanetary expansions. OpenAI, meanwhile, remains in early groundwork for a possible Q4 2026 listing but faces internal tensions, with CEO Sam Altman pushing aggressively despite CFO concerns over massive compute spending and revenue shortfalls. Realistic wildcards include SpaceX delays from SEC review, market volatility, or technical hurdles in Starlink scaling, though OpenAI acceleration seems unlikely without a surprise filing. Traders eye SpaceX's upcoming roadshow as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$72,496End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's confidential SEC filing earlier this month, targeting a June 2026 IPO at a potential $1.75–2 trillion valuation, has driven trader consensus to a 96.5% implied probability that it will go public before OpenAI, reflecting the aerospace giant's advanced regulatory progress amid Starlink revenue growth and ambitious AI-multiplanetary expansions. OpenAI, meanwhile, remains in early groundwork for a possible Q4 2026 listing but faces internal tensions, with CEO Sam Altman pushing aggressively despite CFO concerns over massive compute spending and revenue shortfalls. Realistic wildcards include SpaceX delays from SEC review, market volatility, or technical hurdles in Starlink scaling, though OpenAI acceleration seems unlikely without a surprise filing. Traders eye SpaceX's upcoming roadshow as the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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